Intense rainstorms are expected to occur more frequently in Toronto, according to climate study undertaken by the city.
It's mid-December, Christmas just a little more than a week away, but you wouldn't have been able to guess that Thursday by looking at the weather in Toronto, where the temperature soared to a balmy, but wet 14 degrees.
While a string of mild December days doesn't make a climate trend, a new long-term outlook for the Greater Toronto Area shows warmer winters with less snow are likely to become the norm. The prognosis is part of a soon-to-be completed study of the city's changing climate. The municipality felt it needed Toronto-specific data to help it gauge how best to adapt its programs, services and infrastructure to prepare for shifts in weather patterns and a potential uptick in extreme weather events, said Lawson Oates, director of the city's environment office.
The civic government began examining the effects of climate change in 2007. It's now teaming up with the Greater Toronto CivicAction Alliance to get communities, businesses and organizations involved in devising ways to deal with extreme weather.
"There's a real interdependence here and it can't just be municipalities that are grappling with this or addressing this issue," said Linda Weichel, CivicAction's vice-president of partnerships.
A unique partnership
More than 50 public, private and non-profit groups from across the Toronto region are part of the Weatherwise Partnership, created earlier this year. Toronto is the first Canadian city to pull together such a diverse group to focus on adapting to climate change.
The partnership chose to start with the electricity power system, examining how it would cope if there were an increase in extreme weather, such as tornadoes and heat waves. It's also looking at what would happen if the power goes out, as it did in August, 2003. (The cause of that widespread blackout, which affected Ontario and several northeastern states, was traced to failed transmission lines in Ohio.)
"If the electricity doesn't work, almost everything else is going to break down," said Blair Feltmate, co-chairman of the partnership and an associate professor specializing in sustainable development at the University of Waterloo. "Do we have appropriate backup generation in facilities, whether it's for banks or hospitals or just running any kind of business that's necessary to the function of the city?"
A report on the electricity system is expected in fall of 2012. The group plans to look at other essential services afterward, including telecommunications, transportation, and storm-water systems. One key challenge will be making sure recommendations are practical and cost-effective, Dr. Feltmate said. Otherwise, improvements may never get adopted.
Climate change in the GTA
Flash flooding that tore apart a large chunk of Finch Avenue in 2005 and soaked more than 4,200 basements was a wake-up call for the city. The August storm pelted Toronto with a month's worth of rain in a single day, causing about $600-million in damage to public and private property. It remains the most expensive storm in Toronto history.
Intense rainstorms are expected to occur more frequently, according to the city's climate study. A final report isn't expected until next year, but a snapshot of the region's changing weather patterns has already emerged through modelling.
Both winters and summers are expected to be warmer in 2040 compared with the previous decade, with the average annual temperature rising 4.4 – 5.7 degrees in the winter and 3.8 in the summer. There shouldn't be as many wind-chill warnings, but summers are expected to be more humid.
Increasing summer heat is of particular concern for the city. Toronto Public Health estimates on average 120 premature deaths are heat related each year. It expects this figure will double by 2050, as temperatures rise and the city's population grows.
"The impacts on health, on vulnerable populations is a very key concern," said Mr. Oates of Toronto's environment office.
Adapting to new weather patterns
From planting thousands of trees to buying fuel-efficient vehicles and offering zero-interest loans to make buildings more energy efficient, the City of Toronto has adopted several measures in recent years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Toronto was the first North American city to introduce a green roof bylaw. Adopted in May, 2009, the bylaw requires new commercial, residential and institutional buildings to include shrubs, grasses or trees on their roofs. Aside from absorbing carbon dioxide, the greenery helps cool buildings, reducing the need for air conditioning.
In some cases, climate change efforts are about ensuring vital infrastructure continues to work. The city's transportation department has been using risk-assessment software to identify threats to equipment. Traffic lights proved to be vulnerable to rising temperatures.
"At a certain point, they will not function as they're designed to do," Mr. Oates said. "So they've introduced little fans that kick in when the temperature increases. It helps to cool things down and ensure the lights stay on."
So far, 920 of the city's 2,220 automated traffic-light controllers have been retrofitted with fans that turn on when the temperature reaches 25 degrees. All will be upgraded over the next few years.
The London example
While Toronto is the first Canadian city to embark on a climate-change partnership, London formed one a decade ago. Toronto has sought the London group's advice and looked at some of its initiatives. Mr. Oates noted the roofs of red double-decker buses have been painted white to reflect sunlight, cooling the vehicles by several degrees on hot days.
Juliette Daniels, London Climate Change Partnership manager, said another important measure was mapping the city's hot spots through thermal imaging. The temperature can vary 10 degrees between the centre of the city and the outskirts, she added. Knowing the location of these hot spots has helped urban planners determine where to add more trees and which buildings to target for green roofs and green walls.