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Toronto mayoral candidate Rob Ford.Kevin Van Paassen

Rob Ford has unveiled a transit plan that relies on funding that the province says it likely won't provide. But the mayoral front-runner insists Queen's Park won't dare refuse.

Mr. Ford's plan would transfer the province's promised $3.7-billion in transit spending to a plan that favours east-end subways over crosstown light-rail and would replace existing downtown streetcars with buses. Queen's Park, however, has already earmarked funds for a series of transit investments that have been approved, tendered and awarded.

"If the province says no, it's not going to happen," he said. "I don't see the province saying no to the taxpayers."

Mr. Ford said his focus on subways and roads over streetcars and roadside bike lanes is in response to what he's hearing from taxpayers, and addresses Torontonians' most pressing commuter concerns.

But critics, political opponents and transit experts argue his transit equation is "upside down" and would increase congestion, cost more and worsen the transit woes of a city already falling behind when it comes to moving millions of people.

Transportation Minister Kathleen Wynne was quick to respond to Mr. Ford's plan. While Queen's Park will work with whoever's elected, the province will stick to its plan. "We can't afford to delay the building of new transit in this city," she said in an interview.

"We're catching up on, really, a generation of projects that were stalled. We've got a plan, we're moving forward and anything that is going to slow us down would be a problem.

"I've never had a conversation with Rob Ford," she said, adding that the province isn't prepared to wait for new environmental assessments and contract tenders.

Mr. Ford's $4.8-billion plan, made public Wednesday in a low-budget video on YouTube, would extend the Sheppard subway and the Bloor-Danforth line so they meet up at the Scarborough Town Centre.

It would also replace the city's downtown streetcars with buses with an aim to improve gridlock in the downtown core. But transit experts argue he's got the equation backward: While the city's outer edges are lower density and better suited to buses, putting those vehicles in the downtown core would actually make congestion far worse.







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Eric Miller, transportation engineer with the University of Toronto's Cities Centre, said for the most part Mr. Ford's plan is sound. But the suggestion to replace streetcars with buses in the downtown core is "completely mistaken."

"That's not a solution for anybody. It's a non-starter," Prof. Miller said. "You'd have to have far more [TTC]drivers than you have now and you'd have worse congestion and worse service to people. That's no way of solving downtown congestion problems."

On the other side of the spectrum, suburban East Scarborough would have to increase density significantly both to make the land worth the development cash Mr. Ford would like to get and to warrant a high-capacity subway line running through the neighbourhood.

"People, I think, are going to be very, very riled up when they see the extraordinary scale of development that will be called for to create the volume of traffic to justify a subway," said rival mayoral candidate George Smitherman., adding that the plan ignores Toronto's needy north-west and "fails to connect the city. … It's the 'gridlock forever' plan."

Mr. Ford's plan also budgets for at least $1-billion coming from capitalizing on elevated property values on land near planned subways. He said he's been in touch with developers who would be interested in purchasing the air rights along the planned Sheppard line.

If Mr. Ford succeeds in taking the city's transit plans back to the drawing table, he'd also have to deal with the already signed contracts behind Transit City. It's possible changing those plans would force the city to either pay a cancellation penalty or hope companies like Bombardier will be willing to supply buses instead - and at the same price.

Mr. Ford said he doesn't know how much it would cost the city to cancel existing transit contracts, but if it would mean paying a fee for pre-ordered streetcars, he'd "sell 'em to another city."

Mr. Ford's plan would put $400-million towards fixing "disjointed" streets and jogs that cause serious congestion for drivers now. He'd put about $55-million towards bike paths, most of them in the city's ravines, and $250-million towards maintenance and repair of neglected city streets.

Rival candidate Rocco Rossi said Mr. Ford's focus on cars shows Mr. Ford's "heart really isn't in public transit."

"It's both not particularly wise and, from a financing standpoint, doesn't withstand scrutiny."

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