Two Toronto police officers survey the scene after a woman was struck and killed by a TTC bus at Mount Pleasant Road and Eglinton Avenue. (Dave Chan for The Globe and Mail)DAVE CHAN/The Globe and Mail
The 14 pedestrians killed so far this year in Greater Toronto have generated as much grief and caution on the streets as speculation from armchair urban planners, pop sociologists and water-cooler analysts.
It's difficult to take a series of random events and impose reason, but that hasn't stopped minor-league Malcolm Gladwells from trying. Neo-Luddites blame excessive iPhone use, while millenarians point to the downright apocalyptic "end of civil society." The highly elaborate, global-warming-has-eliminated -snow-which-allows-cars-to-speed-up-at-a- time-of-year philosophy has also generated a vanguard of support.
The truth, however, is more complicated. For starters, the numbers have been somewhat distorted in the press. The City of Toronto proper has had seven fatalities this year - up from two in 2009. The suburbs, which account for the other seven deaths this year in the GTA, have yet to report how their numbers this year compare to last. And as Mike Brady, the city's manager of traffic safety, explains, analysts have been wrestling for decades with the bigger question of why pedestrian collisions have remained constant while other types of collisions have steadily dropped over the years?
At The Globe's request, traffic and safety experts drill down on data and explain why Toronto has the country's highest pedestrian-collision rate, why you should avoid your coffee run at 3 p.m., and why "hump day" could be called "bump day."
Experts Emile Therien, past president of the Canada Safety Council Mike Brady, manager of traffic safety with the City of Toronto Bryan Bowen, urban planner with Toronto firm Urban Strategies Constable Scotty Parrish, Toronto police officer and traffic data analyst Bruce Bell, Toronto historian and walking tour guide
Emile Therien They feel that 3 p.m. is the least busy time, just before the rush hour, serenity and peace, you know. … That's why people are doing it, because they think it's the time to do it. What you see here is a need for a massive public education program to tell people that.
Bryan Bowen The more relevant question is why collect and report this information? A quick review of the historical data reveals a moving statistical target: 3 p.m. in 2004 and 2005, 6 p.m. in 2006, 5 p.m. in 2007. The numbers seem to confirm what we feel - that our streets are more dangerous during rush hour.
Bruce Bell I work on the streets … I always do my tours early in the morning, and if someone says they want a tour late afternoon, I tell them it works better in the morning. For me, I feel safer
DAY OF THE WEEK FACTOR Why is it that so many pedestrians are struck on Wednesdays?
Emile Therien A lot of things are done on Wednesday, believe it or not. Ask retailers, Wednesday is a very busy day. It's a good time to do it, and it breaks the week up. They don't want to do these chores on Saturdays or Sundays because that's their free days.
Bruce Bell Interesting. Two hundred years ago Wednesday was a shopping day here at St. Lawrence Market. The market was only open Saturdays and Wednesdays. It was the only game in town at the time. Maybe it's from those days.
Const. Scotty Parrish You would think it would be Friday when people are thinking more about the weekend and less attentive, or Monday when people are tired from the weekend. … It's busy. Everyone works or goes to school that day. Very few people take a Wednesday off.
STATE OF MIND FACTOR The overwhelming majority of drivers and pedestrians in a collision say that they were in a "normal" condition when the accident occurred - as opposed to being distracted, intoxicated or tired. How can that be?
Const. Scotty Parrish Very few motorists or pedestrians will admit to being oblivious to their surroundings. The vast majority of collisions do involve people in a "normal" condition. That doesn't mean that they won't engage in a risky behaviour or fail to notice something in their immediate area.
Mike Brady The motorist and pedestrian "condition information" is reported to the Toronto Police Service by those involved in collisions. Due to the insurance and other implications associated with traffic collision reports, the information provided may not be fully accurate. … The police consider the road user to have a condition other than "normal" only when they have the supporting evidence.
Emile Therien You have to question that. … [If people were more honest] the data would show a lot of people are inattentive: on a BlackBerry, on a cellphone or whatever.
SEASONAL FACTOR Why are there so many pedestrian collisions in November?
Const. Scotty Parrish It's starting to get darker earlier. The pedestrian that could be seen by traffic at 7 p.m. in the summer is now in darkness. It's also starting to get colder, people are less likely to want to walk to the traffic lights, they just want to get across the street. The colder weather also brings out the scarves, hats and puffy coats that obstruct a pedestrian's view of traffic.
Bryan Bowen While it is natural to want to blame this phenomenon on icy conditions, the statistics also show the large majority of accidents occurring on dry road conditions. I believe this clustering is more likely due to a general decline in our street life during the winter months. When pedestrian and cycling activity starts tapering off in late autumn, motorists gradually become less aware of alternative modes sharing the road. Animated, congested streets balancing multiple modes will always self-regulate better than wide, empty thoroughfares.
Mike Brady During November, there are a number of changing influences which help explain the increased injury collisions. The changing influences are as follows: Toronto has pedestrian and vehicle volume trends, which coincide with our seasons. Volumes are lowest during the summer, increasing to the fall norm starting in September. During November, daylight hours have decreased.
AGE FACTOR Why is it that seniors are overrepresented when it comes to fatal pedestrian collisions?
Const. Scotty Parrish They tend to move slower and require longer to cross the road. Seniors may also have vision and hearing issues that can impact on safety. In addition, a collision for a senior is more likely to result in a broken bone and the complications such as pneumonia that come with them. … As a demographic, seniors only make up about 14 per cent of the population of the city, but they were like 50 per cent of our fatality victims - and that problem's only going to get bigger. We're trying to revamp some of our safety programs and I've been going out to seniors' homes, but not every senior lives in a seniors' home.
Bryan Bowen This statistic reminds us of our responsibility to the mobility-challenged. Just as traffic engineers design road right-of-ways to accommodate the largest vehicles using our roads, so too should we design our streets, crosswalks and sidewalks for the most vulnerable pedestrians.
Mike Brady Many of the seniors who contact Transportation Services regarding the services we provide describe that they require more time to cross signalized intersections and pedestrian crossovers, compared to others, concluding that their crossing rate tends to be slower than others. Consequently, seniors will be on the roadway for a slightly longer time period, which increases their exposure compared to others.
LOCATION FACTOR Why is it that Toronto has the highest pedestrian collision rate of any major city in Canada?
Mike Brady That's perplexed a lot of people. What information isn't here is the relationship between pedestrian collisions and the volume of road users moving through the community on an annual basis. All we've done is relate collisions to population. But what we don't have is the ability to relate it to road users on an annual basis. I can't tell you if there are more pedestrians in Toronto per capita than there are in Montreal, Halifax, Vancouver. We don't have that data. For lack of a better comparison, this is what we arrived at. What I hope it's telling us is that, as a community, we have a huge potential for improvement.
Bryan Bowen I will never forget the first time I visited Halifax. If I even turned to face the street, no matter where I was on the block, cars would quickly come to a stop and wait for me to cross. Feeling guilty for holding up traffic, I would end up crossing whether I needed to or not. Toronto motorists are, however, a generally self-interested bunch, and pedestrians would be well advised to be constantly vigilant and skeptical.
Who is the victim?
You're a Torontonian standing at an intersection waiting to cross. The right of way is yours, but a car wanting to make a left-hand turn is taking the opportunity to do so just as you step off the curb. Are you going to get hit? Collected data from the City of Toronto says that you are the prime candidate for a collision.
Most drivers worry about bad weather conditions, but not you, which makes you most vulnerable on a dry day. Unlike your European counterparts, of whom as many as 40 per cent are drunk when they are struck, according to a study, you are sober, but perhaps not blameless. You may have darted across the road in a Frogger-esque fashion, sprinting through a gap in traffic. That would put you in second place. Or you may have been devil-may-caring through a parking lot: that would make you third most-likely.
When you are hit, it will most likely result in an injury; only 5 per cent of the 2,000 struck pedestrians in Toronto escape unscathed. And if you're the very unlucky 1 per cent, you won't pull through.
Greg McArthur