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Spain has declared the planned Oct. 1 referendum illegal, but the Catalan government is showing no signs of backing down

Students demonstrate against the position of the Spanish government to ban the self-determination referendum of Catalonia during a university students’ strike on Sept. 28, 2017 in Barcelona, Spain.

Carles Escola glanced at his watch as he opened a brown folder showing the one-page summons he's received ordering him to appear before a local prosecutor.

Mr. Escola is the mayor of Cerdanyola del Valles, a small city north of Barcelona, and according to the summons he's supposed to be at the prosecutor's office at 11 a.m. to answer charges that he's helping carry out an illegal referendum on Catalonia's independence this Sunday. He's not going to show up.

"You can guess that it's not a coincidence that we told you to be here at 11," he said with a smile. "For us it's more important that we are speaking with journalists like you at this moment than wasting time on this."

It's a risky move. Mr. Escola, 39, faces the prospect of being arrested on charges of sedition, and with a wife and an 18-month old baby at home, he's worried. "From now on I am waiting for an arrest. We don't know when it will happen. We don't know how they will proceed," he said as he shifted in a chair in his third-floor office in Cerdanyola's tiny city hall. "The threat is on the table. It's real."

And so is his defiance. Despite the summons and another letter threatening legal action, which he tore up in public, Mr. Escola is determined to open polling stations in schools across the city on Sunday and encourage everyone to vote. He's voting "Yes" to independence, and by the looks of the many "Si" posters plastered on signposts in the town square and the giant "Democracia" banner hanging across the main street, so are a lot of other people in town.

These are tense times in Catalonia, a prosperous region of 7.5 million people in the northeast corner of Spain. The debate over sovereignty has been simmering here for years, fuelled by a long-held desire to protect the region's unique culture and a growing resentment among many Catalans that they contribute far more in taxes to the central coffers than they get back in return. Everything boiled over this month after the Catalan parliament announced it would hold an independence referendum on Oct. 1 and declare sovereignty within 48 hours if the Yes side won.

Students pass in front of an Estelada (Catalan separatist flag) prior to a demonstration in favour of the banned Oct. 1 independence referendum in Barcelona.

The Spanish government has hit back hard, declaring the vote unconstitutional and bringing in as much muscle as possible to stop the referendum from taking place. Thousands of national police officers have descended on the region and begun seizing ballot papers and guarding schools and public buildings where polling stations might be set up. So far they've confiscated 10 million ballots and arrested 14 Catalan government officials who had been organizing the vote. Prosecutors have also sent summonses to 712 of the region's 948 mayors ordering them to halt plans to open polling booths, and authorities have shut down scores of websites linked to the referendum. In a televised message to Catalans this week, Spain's Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, bluntly told them to "stop this escalation of radicalism and disobedience once and for all."

It's a dangerous stalemate and Sunday's vote, if it happens, will be watched closely around the world. The European Union has steadfastly backed Madrid's position that under Spain's constitution this kind of referendum can only be called by the central government, and that the vote is being driven by a slim majority of nationalists in the Catalan parliament. But Mr. Rajoy's heavy-handed tactics have raised eyebrows in Brussels and there's growing alarm that his response has backfired and turned the debate into a cry for democratic freedom that is gaining momentum outside Spain. Scottish nationalists and the leader of the Parti Québécois have condemned Spain's actions and said Catalans should have the right to choose their destiny. Basque separatists have joined the fray as well, including ETA, a terrorist group that recently disbanded but whose leading members appeared on television this week wearing black masks and lashing out against Spain's behaviour. With Britain leaving the EU, the last thing European leaders needed was another populist movement that threatened the integrity of the bloc and stirred up nationalist sentiments in other countries such as France, Italy and Belgium.

The Catalan government is showing no signs of backing down. "However much warlike fervour they have, they are wasting their time. October 1st is going to happen," Jordi Turull, a Catalan member of parliament said during a press conference this week. Many nationalists say Spain is actually helping their cause by reacting so fiercely. Support for sovereignty had been falling lately, to well below 50 per cent, and up until a week ago it didn't look like many people would bother to vote. But now polls show a vast majority of Catalans believe they should have the right to vote on self-determination, and people on both sides of the debate have joined forces to ensure the referendum takes place. There's been a wave of civil disobedience from impromptu protests that block roads to disgruntled dockyard workers refusing to unload ships carrying police equipment. Thousands of people have also started printing ballots on their home computers and handing them out in the streets so that people can take them to polling stations on Sunday.

The debate over sovereignty has been simmering in Catalonia for years, fuelled by a long-held desire to protect the region’s unique culture and a growing resentment among many Catalans that they contribute far more in taxes to the central coffers than they get back in return.

"This is not about 'Yes' or 'No' to independence anymore. This is about defending our rights," said Erik Roura, a 19-year old university student. He was among several students manning a table on a Barcelona sidewalk this week helping people find out where to vote by deftly using social media to keep one step ahead of the Internet crackdown. Mr. Roura has never been involved in politics before, and like many Catalans, he pointed to Canada and Britain as examples of what Spain should be doing.

"The biggest difference is that the Canadian government and British government had the democratic will to tolerate this kind of referendum," he said. "They said we don't want you to leave Canada or the United Kingdom, but we know that you are a people, Quebec and Scotland, and you have the right to decide what you want to be."

Even people who are against independence, such as Berta Barbet Porta, a political science researcher at the University of Barcelona, can't understand Spain's reaction. Ms. Barbet Porta, 31, opposes the referendum and she isn't planning on voting on Sunday, believing that Spain and Catalonia should work on a new power-sharing constitution instead. But Spain's response "has been a mistake," she said. "It is only fuelling the debate and now things are pretty intense. I'm scared at what will happen."

The struggle for Catalan sovereignty has been around since 1714, when the Catalonian state fell to King Philip V of Spain, who promptly abolished its parliament. But the roots of the current crisis are far more recent and date back to 200,5 when Spain and Catalonia thought they'd finally come to a resolution of the issue. They approved a new Statute of Autonomy that granted sweeping powers to Catalonia and recognized the region as a nation. The statute was backed by majorities in the Spanish and Catalan parliaments and ratified in a regional referendum by 73 per cent of voters. However, several provisions were challenged in the country's constitutional court by Mr. Rajoy's right-wing People's Party (PP) which had the support of millions of Spaniards who felt Catalonia was getting too much. In 2010 the court largely sided with the PP and struck down much of the statute, including references to Catalan's nationhood.

The ruling prompted a surge of Catalan nationalism, and in 2014 the government held a non-binding vote on independence. It won overwhelming support, but drew a low voter turnout and was only advisory. When regional elections in 2015 produced a small majority for a coalition of nationalist parties, they vowed to go much further. Led by Carles Puigdemont, the new president, the coalition pushed through legislation for a binding referendum and vowed to begin negotiations on separation within two days of a Yes vote. "The welfare of Catalonia is only possible outside of Spain," Mr. Puigdemont told reporters.

Mr. Rajoy's government challenged the referendum law in the constitutional court and it ordered the vote suspended until judges considered the issues. "We are defending national sovereignty, the principle of legality and the institutions," Mr. Rajoy said. "We are defending the rights of all citizens, above all, of the Catalans." Other Spanish cabinet ministers have noted that no country has moved to recognize Catalonian independence and they have challenged claims the region can succeed on its own economically.

Catalan firefighters unfold a large banner with a ballot box and reading “Love Democracy” in front of the Museum of History of Catalonia on Sept. 28, 2017 in Barcelona.

Jorge Galindo, a Spanish political analyst and commentator, said it's the Catalan parliament that's being anti-democratic by holding a referendum most people in the region don't want. And he said the 1978 constitution governing referendums "was a democratic law, democratically chosen, and there are proceedings for changing this law so I think you cannot make an argument of democracy for pushing this referendum."

He and other experts doubt Sunday's vote will have much legitimacy given the expected low turnout and chaotic organization. But the vote still presents a huge challenge for Mr. Rajoy and the future of Spain, which relies on Catalonia for 20 per cent of the country's gross domestic product.

Things will change after Oct. 1, said Carlos Barrera, a communications professor at the University of Navarra. "Now the positions are very extreme, very radical on both sides. The wounds are very difficult to heal."

Antonio Barroso, a managing director at the London-based consulting firm Teneo Intelligence, said Mr. Rajoy is in a difficult position. "Once you have a parliament of a region openly challenging your constitutional order, you leave very few options for Rajoy. He has to act," he said. He added that ultimately both sides will have to find a political solution to what has become a dangerous game of chicken. "I think that it is inevitable that at some point you have some kind of rethinking of the territorial model. Now the issue is that it's going to be extremely tough."

Far too tough, said Germa Bel, a Catalan MP who is also an economics professor at the University of Barcelona. Mr. Bel said relations have broken down and the referendum is now "basically about being respected and having political institutions that are responsive to citizen's preferences." Mr. Rajoy's response just proves the nationalists' point, he added. "They are making clear what their standard of democracy is. You'll see ours on Sunday. You'll see on Sunday many people in their 70s and 80s, or 30-year-olds with kids, going to cast a vote. And that's it. That's a revolution."

Mr. Bel spoke as thousands of people gathered in Barcelona's university square for a referendum rally. As a band belted out music from a giant stage, many in the crowd waved Catalan flags and chanted nationalist slogans. In one area near the back, Marc Bosch, 20, stood with a group of people handing out ballots they'd printed at home. "I want to be proud of my own country," he said. When asked if he had a message for Canadians watching events unfold on Sunday he replied: "Yes. Tell them to support us, and to understand us."

The Catalan parliament announced this month it would hold an independence referendum on Oct. 1 and declare sovereignty within 48 hours if the Yes side won.


Five things about Catalonia

Why are Catalans pushing for independence?

Catalans have argued for centuries that their unique history, culture and language make them a distinct nation separate from Spain. The region has also long complained about a fiscal imbalance with Spain. They argue they send more tax dollars to the central government than the region gets back in terms of public investment for things like infrastructure, health care and education. Economists say there is a gap but it has been shrinking as Spain's economy improves.

How important is Catalonia to Spain?

It's a major manufacturing centre and represents nearly 20 per cent of Spain's gross domestic product, making it one of the biggest drivers of the country's economy. Barcelona is also a major port and the region is a prime tourist destination.

Has any country recognized Catalonia's independence?

No, and that's a problem for the nationalists. The European Union is sticking by Spain while governments in Canada and Quebec have remained neutral, saying they don't want to interfere. U.S. President Donald Trump backed Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in a recent meeting at the White House, saying it would be foolish for Catalonia to separate.

What about the recent terrorist attacks in Barcelona – has that had an impact on the referendum?

Both sides use it to their advantage. Nationalists say the quick response by local police to the attacks, which killed 14 people when men drove vehicles into crowds of people in Barcelona and Cambrils, proves the region can stand on its own. But those against independence say the attack, and the growing threat of terrorism, demonstrates the need for co-ordination across Spain.

How will the vote work if Spain is trying to shut it down?

No one knows. More than 700 mayors have vowed to open polling stations but the national police have been told to close down voting booths. Police have also seized ballots, but people have been printing their own. Turnout will be critical. About 2.3 million people out of 5.4 million total voters cast ballots in the 2014 non-binding referendum. Nationalists were hoping for a turnout of as high as 60 per cent on Sunday, but that looks doubtful given the crackdown. Anything less than 30 per cent will make it hard for the Catalan government to justify declaring independence.