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Patrons peruse the grand bazaar the Kurdistan region’s Irbil on Sept. 30. Kurds voted for independence weeks ago, but some elements have impeded the area’s quest for autonomy.IVOR PRICKETT/The New York Times

The sounds of honking car horns and celebratory cheers on the streets that followed the Kurdish referendum on independence in Iraq have long disappeared. While a sense of determination for statehood continues, it is underscored by uncertainty about the road ahead – and the cost of getting there.

Ever since the overwhelming vote in support of an independent state two weeks ago, the central government in Baghdad and regional powers have been increasing pressure on the Kurdish region to back down.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has argued that the referendum, held by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), is unconstitutional and has called for it to be annulled. Within days, Baghdad closed the region's two international airports. Meanwhile, concerned that their own Kurdish populations might push for autonomy, Turkey and Iran have taken their own steps. Both have begun conducting military drills near the Kurdish border, with Iran deploying tanks and banning fuel trade in the region. Turkey has also threatened to impose economic sanctions, close its airspace and move its border crossing through Iraq.

"Of course we are worried, all we hear is bad news," says Amar Yahya, a 32-year-old NGO worker, at a café off the main artery in Duhok's downtown. Mr. Yahya sits with his two friends, Fakher Zibari, 34, and Dilman Kamil, 37, debating the neighbouring countries' potential next moves.

"I am very concerned about the airport situation. I think this is a really big step," Mr. Zibari says.

By closing the airports and cancelling international flights, Baghdad has effectively disrupted business, family visits and general travel, isolating the region. "But, this is the minimum step they could have taken," Mr. Yahya says. "We expect there will be more than this."

For Mr. Zibari, who is also an NGO worker, the biggest concern is potential economic sanctions. The region relies heavily on imports for food and manufactured products. "It would be a big mess if they closed the borders, especially with winter approaching," he says.

Mr. Kamil, an economics lecturer, adds that a lack of diversification in the Kurdish economy means that the region is more vulnerable to shocks. "We are just selling oil. We have a lot of resources that we aren't using," he says. He thinks improvements to the agricultural sector would decrease the region's dependence on imports from its neighbours, particularly Turkey. (Bilateral trade between Turkey and the Kurdish region amounts to more than $10-billion a year.)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has threatened to close borders, halt exports and shut down the Ceyhan oil pipeline which runs from Kirkuk – a disputed area between Iraq and the KRI, to Ceyhan, in the south of Turkey. The KRI exports around 550,000 barrels of oil a day through the pipeline, and is the region's main source of income.

Kurds have been vying for their own country since the fall and partitioning of the Ottoman Empire left them as minority populations spread across the borders of Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. Kurds make up between 15 per cent and 20 per cent of Iraq's population and their memory of persecution under Saddam Hussein's regime remains vivid. In the 1970s, hundreds of thousands were forcibly displaced during the regime's Arabization campaign. This was followed by the Anfal campaign in 1988, when thousands of villages were razed and up to 100,000 Kurds were killed.

Despite their concerns about what could happen next, Mr. Yahya, Mr. Zibari and Mr. Kamil are still confident that this was the right time for the referendum.

"The situation before the referendum wasn't good anyway," Mr. Yahya says. "The [Iraqi central] government didn't pay people's salaries. The economy was bad. So what will happen? We have hope. If we get independence, it would be like a gift for us."

In Duhok's sprawling central market, bazaar life has continued as normal. Despite the growing pressures on the Kurdish region, many remain confident that Kurds will weather the pending threats and obstacles to independence.

"Since our parents and grandparents, Kurds' lives have been at risk. This isn't something new for us, so I'm not afraid of these risks," says Raouf Rasheed, a stall vendor selling watches.

Shokat Ahmed Ali, who works at a currency exchange shop, echoed that sentiment. "This has to be solved with negotiations. If there aren't negotiations, then Kurds can be patient and handle this situation. We've seen much worse before," he says.

The KRI has largely been seen as a region of stability within the Middle East for its security and the economic growth it saw up until the Islamic State group swept through large swaths of Iraq in 2014. The Kurds gained recognition from western countries as a strong ally in the anti-Islamic State coalition. But the United States and Britain want to maintain a unified Iraq. Not supporting Iraq's territorial integrity would be seen as a risk to further instability for an already fragile state, plagued by Sunni-Shia conflicts and remnants of the Islamic State group.

What comes next?

Back at the café in Duhok, Mr. Zibari discusses the Kurdish parliamentary elections set to take place in November. He sees this as an opportunity to gain support from the international community.

"I want there to be a new election, without interference and without wrongdoing. If we can show the people of the world that we are a people of democracy, eventually they will believe in Kurdistan," he says.

As for a split between Iraq and the Kurdish region, negotiations are always a possibility says Michael Stephens, a research fellow for Middle East Studies at the Royal United Services Institute. But not for now, he says. "If Abadi looks soft on the Kurdish issue, he'll be finished," Mr. Stephens adds.

Now, it's a waiting game with Iraq, Turkey and Iran each piling on pressure. "Everyone is waiting for someone else to make the first move. I think they're all stalling for time," Mr. Stephens says.

Still, the prevailing mood amongst Kurds in Duhok seems to be one of optimism.

"We know an independent state will not come tomorrow morning. We know that Iran, Turkey and Iraq will be really against it. We know this will be a very, very long trip," Mr. Zibari says.

International flights to and from Iraq's Kurdistan region were set to end from 6:00 p.m on Friday, after the central government imposed a ban in retaliation for the region's vote for independence.

Reuters

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