Zaher Al Hariri, speaks to the media in Amman, Jordan, on March 15, 2012, describing how his hand was cut off by Syrian security forces after he went to a state hospital in Deraa city to receive treatment after a bullet penetrated his fingers at a pro-democracy rally.Ali Jarekji/Reuters
One year into Syria's popular uprising, the brutal tactics of President Bashar al-Assad appear to be succeeding.
The armed opposition forces have been routed from the central Syrian city of Homs and, most recently, from Idlib in the northwest near the border with Turkey. The once militant city of Hama was subdued several months ago.
On Wednesday, government forces turned their attention to opposition elements in Daraa, the southern Syrian city where the uprising began last March with a few hundred peaceful protesters.
The operations have reduced the Free Syrian Army and other armed opposition elements to an ineffectual force. Worse, the military elements have been bleeding popular support.
Refugees fleeing Homs in the past week told reporters they blamed the FSA for the government attacks on the city's Baba Amr district, in which the FSA hid among the civilian population, resulting in the high number of civilian casualties.
The year-long conflict has resulted in the death of an estimated 8,000 people, most of them civilians in areas associated with the opposition. It has also spotlighted the ineffectiveness of spotty economic sanctions and international scolding, neither of which stopped President al-Assad's use of brute force. And it has produced a secondary crisis – a flood of desperate refugees – for Syria's neighbours.
The United Nations says some 30,000 people have fled Syria. The majority of those took refuge in Turkey, where camps along the border already hold about 16,000 people and camps to house another 20,000 are being built.
A further 5,000 to 10,000 people are believed to have made their way from Syria to northern Lebanon, and more than 5,000 are said by diplomats to have taken refuge in northern Jordan.
The prospect of some kind of military assistance from the outside for the Syrian opposition has wilted. Countries such as France and Tunisia recently warned against the idea of arming the opposition, and no one, except Qatar, is advocating outside intervention.
Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of flag-waving Syrians turned out Thursday in pro-Assad rallies in Damascus, Aleppo and other major cities. While undoubtedly prodded by the government, these groups do reflect the fact that for many Syrians, the devil they know is better than an unknown alternative.
The country's urban merchant class, with a vested interest in the regime, has not defected in great numbers. The minority Alawites remain largely loyal to their fellow Alawi Mr. al-Assad; Christians are divided; and even the Kurds, a group that has fought for its rights against the al-Assads for years, largely chose to sit this conflict out.
In 1982, in an era with no Syrian cellphones or computers, it took the regime of Hafez al-Assad, the current President's father, about five weeks to crush the militant Muslim Brotherhood opposition holed up in the city of Hama. Some 10,000 to 20,000 people were killed then and a large section of the city was forever levelled.
The brutal nature of the operation suited the interests of the senior Mr. al-Assad: It struck fear in the hearts of the people and guaranteed almost three decades of calm.
Bashar al-Assad faced different conditions and had different objectives. While he has succeeded in keeping out almost all international journalists, he could not escape the spotlight of cellphone cameras and satellite technology that have beamed a steady flow of video and text reports on events in the country.
His early attempts to tread relatively lightly gave rise to a growing armed opposition. Only when he took a page out of his father's book, and launched massive attacks on cities affiliated with the opposition, did he turn the tide.
Mr. al-Assad claimed all along that he was facing armed insurgents and outside elements, thus requiring a military response. Early on, however, there was little evidence to verify this claim. The first demonstrators were models of peaceful protest, making their arrests and deaths shocking.
Later, however, especially since December, the number of successful armed operations by the opposition grew. The tactic divided the opposition and gave credence to Mr. al-Assad's claim.
If the divided opposition, which has failed to coalesce under a single commander, ever does get outside military support it will be too late to be effective, said Washington-based Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid.
While European leaders say European Union sanctions are pressuring Mr. al-Assad to eventually rein in his military and agree to a political solution, the Arab League's own sanctions fizzled when three of Syria's immediate neighbours, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan, made it clear they would not enforce them.
Former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, acting on behalf of the UN Security Council and Arab League, is now calling for both sides to end hostilities and open dialogue.
Mr. Annan is to report Friday on his mission to Syria.