Cpl. Steven Kuzevski, a Canadian Forces MP, trains Afghan National Police officers on the firing range.DENE MOORE
Public support for the Taliban hit an "all-time high" in Kandahar province last spring just as the United States was preparing to pour in the first wave of military reinforcements, polling data compiled by the Canadian military suggests.
The data, obtained by The Canadian Press under access to information laws, provide a fascinating look at the disenchantment of ordinary Afghans, and perhaps illustrate the method behind the madness of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's recent anti-Western rants.
The survey, conducted as part of the military's spring 2009 campaign assessment, illustrates just how much resistance there was even a year ago to the growing U.S. troop buildup in Kandahar.
"International economic assistance is heavily preferred over military assistance," the report said of Afghan public opinion.
A startling 25 per cent of those asked said they had a favourable view of the Taliban, including 6 per cent with a "very favourable" opinion.
A human-rights group said the sentiments captured in the poll are still present today and cast doubt on whether Mr. Karzai will get unanimous public support in Kandahar for NATO's forthcoming offensive.
On Sunday, the President said the sweep would not proceed if locals didn't want it.
In remarks to Afghan parliamentarians last week, Mr. Karzai accused the United States and other Western governments of wanting a "puppet government" in Afghanistan and alleged they engineered widespread fraud during last fall's corrupt national elections.
He later dropped another bombshell, telling a number of Afghan members of parliament that if foreigners continued to meddle in Afghanistan, he'd be forced "to join the Taliban."
On Tuesday, the White House said it would consider cancelling Mr. Karzai's scheduled visit next month if his remarks continue to be troubling.
"We certainly would evaluate whatever continued or further remarks President Karzai makes as to whether that's constructive to have such a meeting," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said of the visit.
Mr. Karzai is scheduled to meet May 12 with U.S. President Barack Obama.
One of the survey's most important findings was the growing mistrust of NATO troops, where a full one-third said they had an unfavourable impression of foreign soldiers.
"The Taliban [is]not winning public consent," said the study. "Afghans still strongly prefer the (government of Afghanistan), but confidence is waning due to lack of security, justice, basic services."
The report's analysis focused on the tide of rising violence that followed the spectacular attack on Sarpoza prison in June 2008, a seminal event that ground commanders hoped would only dent public confidence.
As it turned out, the perception of insecurity it created was long-standing and the numbers did not "bounce back" as expected, the survey noted.
"Fewer Kandaharis report feeling safe than in previous polls; more believe that security is worsening than improving," said the study, carried out in February 2009.
The poll was conducted in most major provincial districts, but the military did not release details about the sample size or methodology. The army has been conducting regular surveys of the Afghan population since 2007.
Ajmal Samadi, director of the human-rights group Afghanistan Rights Monitor, said foreigners have a hard time understanding the complexity of political culture in Kandahar and assume that just because they hate the Taliban, everyone hates the hard-line Islamist group.
"People look at it as though the Taliban - and even al-Qaida - did not harm them, even though they were harsh," Mr. Samadi said Tuesday in an interview from Kabul.
The western media often refers to Kandahar as the birthplace of the Taliban, without ever thinking about what that really means, he added.
"The Taliban is still a political force in Kandahar. It is the reality on the ground," Mr. Samadi said.
"They governed Afghanistan from Kandahar. They made people feel strong. They felt empowered under the Taliban. They felt safe. And now that is all gone. Look at what is happening now with corruption. The road to Kabul is not safe."
The governor of the province didn't dispute the poll findings, but said that the people in some rural areas are compelled to cast their vote for the insurgency.
"The people in the villages and rural areas are hostages," Tooryalai Wesa said Tuesday night in an interview. "They are forced to say they support the Taliban in areas where the government is still weak. They have to compromise."
He said he believes that once the offensive is explained to people, they will support it because privately many district leaders acknowledge that there are pockets of insurgents that must be cleared out.
"There is a misconception," Mr. Wesa said. "They were thinking it was tanks. They were thinking it was artillery. They were thinking it was bombing."
Once the governance aspects are explained, Mr. Wesa said, people become more receptive.
Samadi scoffed at that argument, saying people are jaded after eight years of unfulfilled promises from Mr. Karzai, whom they see as being out for only for his own tribe, the Popalzai.
"It's too late for Karzai to show off this drama of independence," he said.
"I don't believe he convinced Kandaharis, who see him as a puppet. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic."