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geoffrey york

By now, peace and stability were supposed to be returning to war-ravaged Mali.

France was promising to withdraw its troops, and United Nations peacekeepers were in place. Elections were held peacefully this week. A former coup leader was hauled to court on Wednesday to face criminal charges. Mali's supporters in Europe and elsewhere were congratulating themselves on the progress.

But in truth, the battle against the dangerous Islamist radicals of northern Mali – and many other parts of West Africa and North Africa – is far from over. The militants may have pulled back from Mali's northern cities, but they remain active in a network of camps and strongholds across a wide swathe of the continent, still posing a serious threat to some of Africa's most fragile democracies.

The story of Mali and its neighbors – especially Libya, Niger, Algeria and Nigeria – is a reminder of the stubborn persistence of the Islamist movement in much of the region. That's because the Islamists are not just an ideological force. They're also a symptom of weak and collapsed states, where a toxic combination of widespread corruption, poor governance and criminal networks is creating the anarchy and anger in which violent extremists can thrive.

A year ago, Mali was the test case. In the aftermath of a military coup, northern rebels and Islamist militias were able to seize half the country, including all of the main northern towns, exploiting the unpopularity of a weak and corrupt state.

When the militants began to sweep southward in January, jeopardizing the entire country, the world finally woke up. France sent thousands of troops to Mali, backed by logistical help from Canada and other countries, and the Islamists were forcibly ejected from the northern towns. Elections were held, a UN peacekeeping force was created, and billions of dollars in Western aid was pledged. France promised to withdraw most of its 3,200 troops by next year.

Yet beneath the optimistic rhetoric, there are awkward realities on the ground. Mali's parliamentary elections this week was supposed to be the final step in restoring democracy. The voting may have seemed smooth and peaceful, but only about 20 per cent of eligible voters went to the ballot boxes – a signal that many voters are still afflicted by fears of violence and distrust of the government.

In the north, the extremists are mobilizing for new battles. They have launched rocket assaults, suicide bombings and other hit-and-run attacks on government and UN targets. They are able to move freely around much of the northern desert, slipping in and out of key northern towns such as Kidal.

The Malian army has failed to win full control of Kidal and the northern desert – a worrisome development as French troops prepare to withdraw from the country. The French have been obliged to announce a two-month delay in their withdrawal, now scheduled for February.

In one of the most shocking incidents, two French journalists were kidnapped and killed in a brazen daylight raid by extremists in Kidal this month. The Islamists also gained millions of dollars in crucial new revenue in October when they negotiated a ransom payment for the release of four French hostages whom they had kidnapped three years ago.

The main Islamist militia, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), has been pushed back from Mali's northern towns, but it remains active in the northern desert and elsewhere in the region, with links to other Islamist groups in Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Nigeria. Traditional smuggling routes for drugs, weapons and human trafficking have made it easy for the Islamists to cross borders.

Boko Haram, the radical Islamist group that has killed and kidnapped hundreds of people in northern Nigeria and parts of Cameroon, is believed to have trained with AQIM jihadists in the mountains of northern Mali, according to French foreign minister Laurent Fabius.

Boko Haram's influence seems to be growing beyond its home territory. A senior United Nations peacekeeping official has warned that Boko Haram and other jihadists are seeking to expand into the Central African Republic, where religious conflicts have helped fuel the country's descent into violent anarchy.

There are also known links between AQIM and Islamist groups in Libya. Many of the Islamists from northern Mali took shelter in southern Libya after the French troops drove them out of Mali. It's suspected that AQIM has connections to a radical group known as Ansar al-Sharia, which has growing influence on the streets of the key Libyan city of Benghazi, controlling checkpoints and bases in the city. Fighting this week between the Libyan army and Ansar al-Sharia left at least nine people dead in Benghazi.

The Islamists remain a genuine threat in much of West Africa and North Africa. The danger is that the world will be lulled into complacency by the appearance of elections and peacekeepers in places like Mali. Until the governments themselves are credible and effective, the extremists will continue to prosper.

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