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omar samad

A supporter of Afghan presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani in Kabul on July 7.OMAR SOBHANI/Reuters

Last minute high-wire political mediation by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry averted an electoral meltdown that had the potential to jeopardize Afghanistan's fragile political transition, as both contenders, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, disagreed on the outcome of the June 14 presidential runoff. U.S.-led negotiations, also involving the United Nations, not only opened the way for a complete audit of all Afghan votes, but also facilitated a tacit agreement on both sides to open political dialogue aimed at forming a government of national unity.

While Mr. Kerry's 48-hour long efforts has paid off – for now – and all sides agreed to postpone for up to a month the hand-over of power from Hamid Karzai to the new president, both technical and political aspects of the deal are complex and open to different interpretations.

Technical complexities

The agreement on the audit provides for a full review of all ballots cast in the runoff. It also calls upon the United Nations and other competent international bodies to help the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC), the Complaints Commission (IECC) and the monitoring groups to oversee and assure transparency of the process. The IEC had claimed that more than eight million ballots were in the system (one million more than its initial tally).

After reworking the administrative and legal modalities of the audit, the responsible bodies will need to certify the validity of the ballots, making sure that not only are the turnout numbers based on reality, but also that no tampering has taken place since Mr. Abdullah's monitors boycotted the vote count three weeks ago.

Any major deficiency or oversight with the audit could return the process back to square one. Beyond the risk associated with manipulation or shoddy implementation, the audit also faces a timeline challenge.

Knowing that as many as 3,000 commission staffers, who did not possess enough training and were alleged to have had political bias, were hired just days before elections, it is incumbent upon the oversight groups to allocate enough resources, including competent staffing, to accomplish the various aspects of an audit to the satisfaction of all sides by the end of July.

The political deal

With a pledge to co-operate and agree to the formation of a national unity government, the two contenders, contrary to previous pronouncements, implicitly agreed to share power. At a moment of realpolitik, they realized that the concept of winner-takes-all is impractical under today's domestic conditions in Afghanistan, as well as in relation to its foreign policy and regional strains.

While details will need to be hammered out over the next days through an open dialogue and within a well-defined framework, this dimension of the deal will not lead to a workable formula unless accompanied by confidence building measures.

Any effort in this regard will need to be personally led by the two team leaders. Furthermore, political measures can best be discussed if the international community – through the UN and its envoys – plays a more robust role and Mr. Kerry keeps close tabs on developments.

It was agreed that the winner of the presidential election will form and preside over the new government with input from the runner-up. What is not clear yet is what position the number two man will hold since the country's constitution does not yet foresee a position for a prime minister or even a chief executive.

At the minimum, a decree would need parliamentary approval for the post of chief executive, until the time when a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) is convened to amend the country's laws and adopt a parliamentary system, where the roles and powers of the president and a prime minister are clearly defined.

Other options include splitting positions based on sector and/or political weight.

It also remains to be seen how the current posts for the vice-presidents will be allocated. The current constitution allows for two VPs, but now that issue may have to be revisited.

Since each candidate is heading a campaign coalition of factions, parties, networks and personalities, it will be important for them to maintain cohesiveness within these teams as they seek agreement on power sharing.

The most important part of a credible agreement will have to take into account the appointment criteria used for the government's highest positions. It is not sufficient to base appointments on political connectivity alone.

Both Mr. Abdullah and Mr. Ghani are known to be strong performers and they are now viewed as national leaders. One of the tests they both face at this stage is to agree first to a set of criteria based on professionalism, competency and merit. Only then, should they take other considerations into account.

To deal with major outstanding challenges on issues such as security, anti-corruption, good governance, economic development, institution building and the rule of law, Afghans need to be assured that their new government will recruit and rely on the best calibre civil servants the country can find in both the civilian and security sectors.

The Karzai factor

Any successful transition cannot be complete without the constructive role of the outgoing president, Hamid Karzai. His role, since the start of the electoral process last year, is still being written. It is also clear that this last chapter will have a special influence on his legacy.

Both Mr. Ghani and Mr. Abdullah have clearly stated that once the transfer takes place, they would not only provide Mr. Karzai with a respectful and honorary status as the first democratic post-Taliban leader, but will also rely on him for advice and guidance. A smooth transfer of power serves the interests of all sides.

With the worst period of the highly controversial 2014 Afghan elections now behind us to a large extent, the upcoming days should determine the outcome in a transparent manner to assure a higher level of credibility and legitimacy that Afghans and their international partners expect of their leaders and the electoral processes.

Omar Samad is senior Central Asia fellow at New America Foundation. He was the Ambassador of Afghanistan to France (2009-2011) and to Canada (2004-2009) and spokesperson for the Afghan Foreign Ministry (2002-2004)

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