Post-Brexit survival supplies in Britain known as “Brexit boxes.” Migrant rescue ships banned from Italian ports. France nearly crippled by endless gilets jaunes protests. The relentless rise of right-wing, Euroskeptic populist parties. Germany’s main opposition party campaigning for a German version of Brexit.
What is happening to the European Union? It seems to be cracking, maybe fatally so, and it’s not just because of Brexit.
On Tuesday night, the British parliament handed Prime Minister Theresa May a stunning defeat, rejecting her Brexit plan by a thumping 230 votes. The plan, which had set Brexit day for March 29, apparently pleased no one: not the Remainers, who wanted Britain to remain firmly planted in the EU; not the Leavers, who rejected Ms. May’s Brexit-lite plan that would leave Britain stuck in the customs union; and not the hard-core Brexiteers, who wanted no part of a customs union.
The vote triggered chaos. After Ms. May’s plan crashed and burned, no one could say for sure what will happen next. Various scenarios, each credible to some degree, had Ms. May resigning (unlikely), an election called, a new referendum on Brexit, Brexit in March in a disastrous crash-out fashion, or kicking the can down the road by extending Article 50, the EU exit clause, giving Britain some breathing room while an overhauled exit deal is bashed out in Parliament.
Whatever the case, Brexit this year is still possible, even likely. And if Brexit does not happen, Britain will remain a highly divided nation, with roughly half of the electorate eager to bid adieu to the EU. Brexit or no Brexit, Britain’s relationship with the EU, never easy at the best of times, will never be the same.
Losing the union’s second or third biggest economy (it’s roughly tied with France) and its leading neo-liberal voice would be a huge blow to the EU. But Brexit would not kill the EU. Other factors could and some of them are showing distressing signs of vigour. Faith in the European project is fading fast, with countries on the so-called periphery – those beyond the Franco-German core – losing faith the fastest.
The EU and its predecessor editions have expanded in stages since 1957’s Treaty of Rome, whose signing begat the European Economic Community. The last great push, to the east, brought former dictatorships, among them the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Latvia, into the EU fold. Today’s EU membership count stands at 28 (falling to 27 if Brexit happens).
Why did the periphery countries join the EU? It wasn’t for EU handouts. They were keen to join because they wanted to boost their levels of wealth through access to the world’s greatest consumer market, but also because they wanted to adopt the EU core countries’ governance qualities, from sound fiscal management and high environmental standards to the rule of law and transparency.
Those qualities did not flow to the periphery evenly or in great quantities, and over time, the EU divide widened – the wealthy, well governed core countries versus the recklessly governed, and often entirely corrupt, poor southern and eastern countries made poorer by deep recessions after the 2008 financial crisis. The lack of progress in the south and the east presented a dilemma to the core EU countries: How to keep this EU integration project alive?
The evident solution was to invent the transfer union, in which endless handouts in the form of EU development grants and development funds, sovereign bailouts (of Greece, Portugal and Cyprus, for instance) and other freebies or near freebies kept the periphery from losing all faith in the EU. Of course, the transfer union scheme is entirely unsustainable. It builds resentment in the rich countries, stoking resentment that leads to Euroskeptic right-wing populism. The funds directed at the periphery sometimes ended up in the hands of the elites, the undeserving or the corrupt, who doled it out sparingly, building resentment in the recipient countries.
The EU cannot thrive on a gravy train model. It’s unaffordable and counterproductive.
At the same time, the eastern countries, the ones that suffered decades of brutal Soviet control, were resisting handing more control to the EU (as Britain was). Once detached from the Soviet Union, they wanted to discover their identities and nurture their independence, as the Czechs and the Slovaks did after Czechoslovakia was split down the middle in 1993 – the velvet divorce.
Today, the manifestation of the waning interest in the EU can be seen in the rise of the right-wing populist parties, each of which is Euroskeptic to varying degrees. These parties are either in power or highly influential in the governments of Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Finland and Denmark.
The Alternative For Germany, the main opposition party in the German parliament, despises the EU’s migrant policies and has vowed to campaign for “Dexit” – a German exit from the EU. Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini, probably the most successful Euroskeptic populist in the EU, has 3.3 million Facebook followers and almost one million Twitter followers. He has defied the EU by preventing charity rescue ships from landing migrants at EU ports, and his government has shown that it is happy to break the EU’s budget deficit rules.
Mr. Salvini and other prominent Euroskeptics, among them Marine Le Pen of France and Geert Wilders of Netherlands, want to form an EU-wide nationalistic bloc in May’s EU parliamentary elections. Polls suggest this bloc could gain 200 of the parliament’s 751 seats, enough to frustrate any further EU integration moves.
These parties want a new, decentralized model for Europe, one that could be called a “Europe of Nations.” The EU has seen no major integration effort since the Lisbon Treaty came into force in 2009. With Brexit and the rise of the Euroskeptic populist parties, integration will stay on hold or go in reverse. The question is whether the cracks will widen to the point where the EU disintegrates. The EU elections will provide a powerful clue.
eu right-wing populist parties
By country, party and number of seats
in national parliament
No. of seats held by party
Total no. of seats in parliament
Austria
Freedom Party of Austria
51
183
Belgium
Vlaams Belang
6
124
Bulgaria
United Patriots
27
240
Czech Republic
Ano
78
200
Denmark
Danish People’s Party
37
179
Estonia
Cons. People’s Party of Estonia
7
101
Finland
Blue Reform
18
200
France
Rassemblement National
7
577
Germany
Alternative for Germany
91
709
Hungary
Fidesz
133
199
Jobbik
26
199
Italy
Lega
125
630
Latvia
National Alliance
13
100
Lithuania
Order and Justice
7
141
Luxembourg
Alternative Dem. Reform Party
4
60
Netherlands
Forum for Democracy
2
150
Poland
Law and Justice
237
460
Slovakia
Slovak National Party
15
150
People’s Party Our Slovakia
14
150
Sweden
Sweden Democrats
62
349
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: graphic news
(election results; politico; spiegel; univ. of bremen)
eu right-wing populist parties
By country, party and number of seats in national parliament
No. of seats held by party
Total no. of seats in parliament
Hungary
Austria
Freedom Party of Austria
Fidesz
133
199
51
183
Jobbik
26
199
Belgium
Vlaams Belang
Italy
6
124
Lega
125
630
Bulgaria
United Patriots
Latvia
27
240
National Alliance
13
100
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Ano
Order and Justice
78
200
7
141
Denmark
Luxembourg
Danish People’s Party
Altern. Dem. Reform Party
37
179
4
60
Estonia
Netherlands
Cons. People’s Party of Estonia
Forum for Democracy
7
101
2
150
Poland
Finland
Law and Justice
Blue Reform
237
460
18
200
Slovakia
Slovak National Party
France
15
150
Rassemblement National
People’s Party Our Slovakia
7
577
14
150
Germany
Sweden
Alternative for Germany
Sweden Democrats
91
709
62
349
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: graphic news (election results;
politico; spiegel; univ. of bremen)
eu right-wing populist parties
By country, party and number of seats in national parliament
Number of seats held by party
Total number of seats in parliament
Austria
Hungary
Freedom Party of Austria
Fidesz
133
199
51
183
Jobbik
26
199
Belgium
Vlaams Belang
Italy
6
124
Lega
125
630
Bulgaria
United Patriots
Latvia
27
240
National Alliance
13
100
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Ano
Order and Justice
78
200
7
141
Denmark
Luxembourg
Danish People’s Party
Alternative Dem. Reform Party
37
179
4
60
Estonia
Netherlands
Cons. People’s Party of Estonia
Forum for Democracy
7
101
2
150
Poland
Finland
Law and Justice
Blue Reform
237
460
18
200
Slovakia
Slovak National Party
France
15
150
Rassemblement National
People’s Party Our Slovakia
7
577
14
150
Germany
Sweden
Alternative for Germany
Sweden Democrats
91
709
62
349
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: graphic news (election results;
politico; spiegel; univ. of bremen)