Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! They’re a rallying cry for those out of power. They’re the demand political leaders constantly face. There are never enough jobs, and there aren’t now.
But these are unusual times. In the United States, the latest Department of Labor statistics have economists swooning. The U.S. is posting its lowest unemployment rate, 3.6 per cent, in 50 years.
The Canadian numbers aren’t quite as robust. The jobless rate, which would be considerably smaller if U.S. measuring criteria were used, is in the high fives. But that still ranks as the lowest the country has seen in more than 40 years.
In North America, considering the deep global recession of a decade ago and all the grim talk about labour markets that followed, there should be a sense of relief.
The onslaught of automation was supposed to be killing jobs. The disappearance of manufacturing jobs was taking a heavy toll. Online shopping was supposed to devour retail employment.
And the reality? Well, it’s so bleak you have to go back to the era of the Second World War to find much better job markets.
Is there something to celebrate here? Should we be doing the unthinkable and giving political leaders, Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau included, a bit of credit?
To be sure there are caveats and downsides. Wage growth, while now on the move in the United States, isn’t near what it used to be – in either country. Too many people need two or three jobs to make ends meet. The wealth gap between rich and poor is cavernous, particularly in the U.S.
Beyond the good employment numbers are other worrisome signs. In Canada, the economic growth rate is tepid. Labour productivity rates are down.
Mr. Trump’s modus operandi, highlighted by random cranial fixations, means no one can relax. The deficit is at a dangerous level, and his policies could blow it out of control. But the issue isn’t getting much attention. Deficit paranoia has long been present in Canada, but rarely registers.
In both countries, while the jobs picture is encouraging, political leaders are reaping little benefit. Mr. Trump has defied the expectations of most economists. His employment numbers would not be possible without an inflation surge, they said. There is no inflation surge.
But his job approval numbers are still well below 50 per cent. Despite the bubbly economy, he was clobbered in the midterm elections. A major problem for him was that good news has been overshadowed by the hullabaloo surrounding the Mueller inquiry on Russian electoral interference.
In Canada, the first two months of 2019 showed a jump in jobs that represented the best start to a year since 1982. At the same time, Statistics Canada released a report showing the poverty rate at an all-time low. The Canada Child Benefit was helping lower-income and middle-class families. But in Mr. Trudeau’s case, the good news was drowned out by the SNC-Lavalin controversy.
Compared with the jobs numbers bequeathed to them by Barack Obama and Stephen Harper, the Trump and Trudeau performances look good. Mr. Trump’s raucous capitalist spirit, his deregulatory pursuits and his tax cuts stoked the economic engine. The latter, benefiting mainly corporations and the wealthy, are offensive to progressives and derided as trickle-down economics. But the trickle is looking more like a flow.
In Canada, unemployment was at 7 per cent when Mr. Trudeau took office. His strategy of moving away from the Harper government’s spartan spending approach and bringing stimulus to the economy hasn’t fared too badly. Conservatives feared the plan would produce runaway deficits. It hasn’t. Mr. Trudeau, however, promised the books would be balanced by 2019. They aren’t.
How a leader fares on the economy has much to do with timing: whether the term of office coincides with an up or a down cycle – whether global forces are trending favourably or not.
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Trudeau hit the sweet spot in that regard, and anyone doling out prizes needs to keep this perspective in mind. It would have taken a good deal of bungling for any leader to thwart the positive trajectory the economies were on.
Neither the President nor the Prime Minister have done that. Momentum was there. They didn’t get in its way, and their employment policy initiatives arguably added to it. On jobs! jobs! jobs! two cheers for their work.
Lawrence Martin