WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 19: U.S. President Barack Obama in the Oval Office of the White House November 19, 2014 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Ron Sachs-Pool/Getty Images)Pool/Getty Images
'I look forward," says incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, "to the new Republican majority taking up and passing the Keystone jobs bill early in the new year." You bet he does. After his party's midterm victories earlier this month, Senator Rand Paul said that Congress would "send the President bill after bill," authorizing Keystone XL, "until he wearies of it." The Republican Party knows it has a political winner in Keystone. But the political win is not about getting the pipeline built – it's about forcing President Barack Obama to block its path by chaining himself to a bulldozer.
Mr. Obama could have quietly signed off on Keystone XL a long time ago. Instead, he delayed, offering neither a clear yes nor a definitive no. As time has passed, U.S. environmentalists, an important part of the Democratic Party base, successfully but mistakenly turned the pipeline into their most powerful fundraising tool, and the dividing line between environmental salvation and global warming catastrophe. Mr. Obama is in a bind, but he put himself there.
Most Americans support the pipeline. So do many Democrats, including a handful of Democratic senators who voted for it earlier this week. Keystone divides Democrats, but unites Republicans. And Republicans are using that to maximum advantage.
In January, once the new, Republican-majority Congress is sworn in, Mr. Obama will be in a lose-lose position. If he responds to new Republican legislation by approving Keystone XL, Republicans win and he loses face. But if he vetoes a Keystone XL bill, the GOP gets an even bigger win. Because a veto means the chance to pass new legislation. A veto would be a gift that keeps on giving.
One veto would make Republicans happy. A second veto would be twice as pleasing. And the party will be in heaven if the President has to strike Keystone bills down in every quarter for the next two years, handing the millstone off to the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. The former Mr. "Yes We Can" will have fallen into the Republican trap, transformed into an obstructionist President "No You Don't."
There's speculation that the White House will negotiate some sort of face-saving deal with the Republicans. Not likely. The GOP holds all of the cards, they're winning, and they have every interest in keeping the game going. The best way for Mr. Obama to make his problem go away? Cut his losses, accept some pain, and end the game. Find a way to quietly give the administrative go-ahead to Keystone in the next six weeks – before a new Congress can start veto-baiting him.