It would be a mistake to overstate the significance of the election victory of Democratic candidate Doug Jones in Alabama on Tuesday.
It was, after all, a by-election – events that are not always representative of a broader voting trend. It was also unusual, to say the least, that the expected winner was accused during the campaign of sexual misconduct and pedophilia.
The narrow defeat of Republican candidate Roy Moore has to largely be credited to the fact that the allegations against him were seen as credible by many people, including influential Republicans, some of whom urged voters not to elect him. A better GOP candidate may well have won.
In short, it's unwise to assume that this miraculous Democratic Party victory in a monolithic Republican state is the portent of a trend that will continue through mid-term elections in 2018 and on to the presidential election in 2020.
But it is fair to say that it serves as a rebuke to the biggest Republican of them all. President Donald Trump put the full weight of his office behind Mr. Moore. He endorsed Mr. Moore repeatedly on Twitter and campaigned fervently on his behalf during a rally in Florida just a few days before the election. None of it helped.
In fact, it may have backfired. Turnout in Alabama's special Senate election was significantly higher than expected, especially among black voters angered by the President's race-baiting tactics and his overt coddling of white supremacists and the alt-right. It was also high among voters living in affluent urban and suburban areas who may be tiring of Mr. Trump's bombast and his contempt for conventional ethics.
The consequence of the Alabama vote for Mr. Trump is that the Republicans now have the thinnest possible majority in the Senate, which will in turn make it harder (but not impossible) for him to implement his agenda.
The lesson, though, is that Mr. Trump may be more effective at energizing his opponents than he is his supporters. The next elections are a long way off and much can happen, but right now the President is making it difficult for the Republican Party to feel confident about its chances. If the most powerful and vocal avatar of your party turns into one of its biggest liabilities, you've got a serious problem.