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editorial

The current principal blunt instrument of American foreign policy – we speak of Donald Trump's Twitter account – has lately been aimed at a previously unthinkable target: America's European allies, above all Germany.

On Tuesday, and not for the first time, Mr. Trump swung a paw at a long-standing partner. "We have a MASSIVE trade deficit with Germany, plus they pay FAR LESS than they should on NATO & military. Very bad for U.S. This will change," he wrote at 6:40 a.m.

The missive followed an extraordinary comment earlier this week by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to the effect that the U.S. and Britain are no longer reliable allies for her country.

Analysis: Europe-U.S. rift develops after a tense, Trump-filled G7 summit

"The times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. I've experienced that in the last few days," Ms. Merkel said in a speech at a Bavarian beer tent. "We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands."

Ms. Merkel is in the midst of an election campaign, and criticizing the perfidious anglosphere plays as well with German voters as criticizing Europeans does with Mr. Trump's audience. But her ire was real, prompted by Mr. Trump's words and actions during last week's meeting of the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the G7 in Italy.

In the course of those five days, NATO began to unravel. Combined with the events of the past year – America's election of a man who called NATO "obsolete," who cheered Brexit and backed France's Frexit-promoting National Front, and who consistently demonstrates a reflexive hostility to democratic allies – it seems like the Western alliance's dissolution may be happening, right before our eyes.

Somewhere, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin is laughing. For decades, Russian and Soviet foreign policy aimed to drive a wedge into NATO, specifically between the U.S. and Germany.

In Canada, the repercussions of this deepening split will be profound. The question for the Liberal government is what to do about it.

Ottawa's principal aim must be to not get caught in the crossfire – no simple task, considering the increasingly isolationist and protectionist White House and Congress.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's values align more closely with those of Ms. Merkel and new French President Emmanuel Macron. But Canada's key economic relationship is with our largest trading partner, the U.S. That relationship has to be Issue No. 1 for any Canadian PM. And remember, Mr. Trump does not hold all of the cards in Washington's system of divided government, he will not be in the White House forever, and so far, he has done more barking than biting.

That is the backdrop against which a re-negotiation of the North American free-trade agreement will take place.

As that saga unfolds, Canada, signatory of a free-trade deal with the European Union, will also have to stake out a role within the new NATO dynamic.

Much has been made by Mr. Trump of the paltry defence spending of alliance members. Canada spends just one per cent of GDP on national defence; NATO countries have committed to spending two per cent. Most European countries fail to meet that target.

And though Canada punches well above its weight in other ways, being far more willing than the Europeans to send troops into combat (Afghanistan), to join American-led missions (Iraq) and to militarily stand up to Russia (a training mission in Ukraine, Canadian troops based in the Baltics), when the measure is dollars and cents, Canada is one of the alliance's worst laggards.

Yes, Canada should step up defence spending, and not because Mr. Trump asked. However, reaching the two per cent of GDP target would involve Ottawa spending an extra $20-billion a year, year after year. That won't be happening any time soon. Liberal Ottawa lacks the desire, and the federal budget doesn't offer the means.

Canada must do more within the Western alliance, but it can't suddenly spend twice as much.

Spending aside, it feels odd to have to make the case for NATO, and to have to make it to its leader, the American President.

But the Russian annexation of Crimea and the ongoing machinations in Ukraine and the Balkans, coupled with the recent Kremlin interference in elections in the U.S. and France, mean the alliance has taken on renewed importance.

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan put off delivery of his department's long-anticipated defence policy review until after last week's NATO summit – as it turns out, an inspired move.

As for free trade, it is a dense thicket, what with Mr. Trump's vacillating and contradictory agendas.

Ultimately, though, on free trade and NATO, Ottawa's goals are the same: Keep America in the club. And help America behave like America, again.

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