Seva Gunitsky is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto. His book, Aftershocks was recently published by Princeton University Press.
Canadian policy in Ukraine has reached an impasse. The recent renewal of a 200-person training mission signalled Canada's commitment to challenge Russia, but it's unlikely to sway anyone inside the Kremlin. The Canadian presence may boost morale and provide some much-needed equipment, but it will not move the entrenched battle lines. Much like the conflict itself, Canadian strategy in Ukraine has become frozen.
In its attempt to put pressure on Russia, the Liberal government has missed a better alternative. The best way to diminish Russia's influence in the region is not by building up NATO forces, but by ensuring a stable and democratic Ukraine. After all, a weak and corrupt Ukraine feeds perfectly into the Moscow narrative that Western interference only brings war and instability. Look at the nightmare in Ukraine, says the Russian media, and you'll see what happens when pro-Western stooges overthrow an elected government. Russian officials repeatedly point to the country's volatility – its corruption, its civilian casualties and its economic troubles – as an example of what happens when Western meddling goes too far.
Like West Germany after the Second World War, Ukraine could serve as a symbol of a better way of life. Right now, it is merely a harbinger of Western weakness and uncertainty. President Vladimir Putin's government – and his public support for Russia's involvement in the region – thrives on the prospect of Ukrainian instability. The surest way to demonstrate Mr. Putin's weakness is not by training more soldiers but by building Ukrainian institutions and civil society.
Ensuring Ukraine's future would not just falsify Russian claims and erode the Russian narrative. It would also undermine Mr. Putin's military justifications for his actions. Russia has been using the prospect of Ukrainian instability as the main reason for protecting its "compatriots" next door. A Ukrainian government that credibly safeguards the rights of ethnic Russians in its territory would rob Mr. Putin of any pretext for expanding Russia's military presence beyond Crimea.
Globe editorial: In troubled times, Canada should not abandon Ukraine
Moreover, Canada has much more leverage over the Ukrainian government than it does over Russia. With a military option off the table, the West has resorted to sanctions, joint military exercises and training missions to keep Mr. Putin in check. But despite the pain that sanctions have brought to the Russian economy, they've had zero effect in persuading Mr. Putin to change course. He is clearly willing to face the costs of sanctions to secure what he sees as Russia's vital strategic interest.
Despite all the talk of NATO deterrence, there is not much Canada can do to shape decisions inside the Kremlin. By contrast, the Trudeau government has tremendous leverage in influencing the Ukrainian government. Over the past three years, Canada has provided more than half-a-billion dollars in foreign aid and loans to Ukraine, including $100-million for democracy aid to civil-society groups and political organizations. Yet the country's rampant corruption (including at the top) means that much of the aid is likely to be wasted or siphoned off to the elites.
Ukraine badly needs more economic aid to fix its collapsing economy, and no such help will be forthcoming from Russia (or the United States, for that matter). Economic problems spell boom times for Ukrainian nationalists, and their rise would reinforce Russia's narrative that it is merely defending its compatriots from modern-day fascists. If that happens, Russia will have a convenient moral justification for further intervention.
Canada should make further aid conditional upon concrete Ukrainian efforts to battle corruption and to build a functioning bureaucracy. Another key requirement is to demand Ukrainian guarantees of protection to ethnic minorities, a promise to hold free and fair elections, and the creation of an inclusive government that will incorporate the interests of ethnic Russians.
Building a strong and prosperous Ukraine is not just in the country's own interests, but would undercut Russia's powerful (and increasingly appealing) narrative of Western malaise and incompetence. The best thing Canada can do is to help forge a Ukraine that defies Russian expectations – a stable and democratic country on Mr. Putin's doorstep.