Peter Klein is the director of the University of British Columbia Global Reporting Centre.
I grew up in the America that Donald Trump promises in his signature slogan, "Make America Great Again," which is emblazoned on hats and placards across the country. That was the America of the 1950s, 60s and 70s, where a blue-collar worker like my father, without a high school education, could hold down a steady, good-paying job and provide his family a comfortable lifestyle. Mr. Trump hopes to win the presidency of the United States by convincing voters that he can bring back that era.
My father spent decades on the assembly line at the Ford automotive plant in Sharonville, Ohio, working as a burr hand, grinding and polishing transmissions. He earned enough to buy us a house, a car and occasional vacations. We had good private health insurance, and he had a generous pension that carried him into retirement. When he left Ford, the company gave him a pair of gold-plated cufflinks.
Many blue-collar Americans can only dream of such a life today, regardless of what Mr. Trump may promise. China has cornered the market on cheap manufacturing, and the United States, even with its modest federal minimum wage of $7.25, simply cannot compete with workers making a small fraction of that amount on the other side of the globe. Mexicans are going to continue to do low-wage jobs that most Americans refuse to do. Factories have closed down and moved south of the border and overseas, and with rare exceptions, they are not coming back – the assembly lines have been dismantled, and the rustic buildings have been turned into hipster lofts.
There is nothing new to Donald Trump's promise to make America great again. He has trademarked his catchphrase, but he stole the line from Ronald Reagan, whose slogan during the 1980 presidential race was "Let's Make America Great Again." Despite early predictions that Reagan would lose handily to Jimmy Carter, the Gipper won by a landslide, and he did so by securing the vote of so-called "Reagan Democrats," people who no longer saw the Democratic Party as representing their basic interests.
In 1980, I was not yet old enough to vote, but I was old enough to hold political opinions, and I remember being confused and disillusioned when I discovered my parents abandoned Jimmy Carter and cast their votes for Ronald Reagan. Looking back, I understand why. The country was in crisis, with economic and security concerns not that different from today, and they wanted to try something new.
While Mr. Trump's outlandish statements on race these days may get the most headlines, his words about jobs seem to resonate most with voters, with studies showing that jobs and the economy top the concerns for people supporting him. Polls show he has the highest support among white working-class voters, a crucial voting block in the all-important rust belt states.
The Republican front-runner routinely references a viral video shot in Indiana in which managers at an air conditioner manufacturer lay off workers and tell them the factory is going to Mexico. Imagine being a factory worker and seeing that video, wondering if your job is next.
In my home state of Ohio, which is holding primaries today, manufacturing is drying up. In the three-year period economists call the Great Recession, 2007 to 2009, Ohio lost close to 200,000 blue-collar jobs. In 1990, there were more than one million factory workers in the state, and today that number is down to 680,000. In one county in Ohio, at least 1,000 registered Democrats recently switched party affiliation to Republican, and I bet quite a number of them will be casting votes for Trump.
Today, free trade deals have encouraged the natural economic flow of goods, from places that can make them most efficiently to places that can afford them. This allows countries such as the United States to focus on higher-wage skilled jobs that require education. But where does that leave Americans who never got that education? No wonder Donald Trump loudly proclaimed, "I love the poorly educated!" He is promising them a time machine – to a time when two strong hands and a decent work ethic could be enough to earn you a shot at the American dream.