Rashid Husain Syed is a journalist, energy analyst and consultant based in Toronto. For almost 25 years, he served as vice-president of a leading Saudi trading and consulting house.
The inevitable has happened.
Octogenarian King Salman of Saudi Arabia, who slowly and gradually chipped away at the powers of Prince Mohammad bin Nayef (his nephew and the then-heir to the throne), has finally and formally promoted his 31-year-old son, Prince Mohammad bin Salman, as the new crown prince of the kingdom.
Over the last couple of years, his ever-expanding portfolio – besides defence, economy and energy – has resulted in a meteoric rise in the profile of bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS. He was seen leading the kingdom on all fronts – from Yemen to Qatar – eclipsing his elder cousin, the then-crown prince. MBS was also seen as the man behind "Vision 2030" and a potential Saudi Aramco IPO. In order to improve the finances of the kingdom, he opted to shelve the crude oil share battle. To many, he also represented the aspirations of the youth of Saudi society.
Related: Saudi king names son as heir amid heightened tension in region
And yet, not everything was going his way. The Saudi economy was still not out of woods. The war in Yemen did not go as scripted. The obsession of the young and (some say) brash prince with isolating and strangulating Iran appears to have resulted in the recent developments with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partner, Qatar. As per some press reports, bin Nayef had reservations about Saudi Arabia's Yemen, and now Qatar, policy. And despite conflicting voices coming from Washington, U.S. patience with Saudi Arabia on the Qatar issue was wearing thin, as indicated by State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert on Tuesday.
The overall report card on bin Salman was not too rosy.
But, in the backdrop of all this, when U.S. President Donald Trump selected Saudi Arabia for his first overseas trip, it appeared to be a major, personal success of MBS. Leaders from 55 Muslim countries were invited to Riyadh, and the event helped raise the international profile of the young prince. MBS apparently realized it was now or never. And he acted.
How did the Saudi royal family, with thousands of competing princes, react to the promotion of MBS? Although the deposed crown prince has taken an oath of allegiance to the new heir-apparent (on the instructions of the King, per some reports), many familiar figures of the recent past are keeping a low profile for the time being. Mohammed bin Nayef has joined their ranks.
Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz (who was deposed as crown prince a few months after King Salman took the reins of power in the kingdom), Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Prince Mohammed bin Fahad, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal and others were all seen jockeying for the top spot at one point or another. Not too long ago, Khalid Al-Tuwaijri carried significant clout in the Saudi royal court. Yet in the immediate aftermath of King Abdullah's death in 2015, not only did Prince Miteb bin Abdullah lose his bid for power, but Khalid Al-Tuwaijri also lost his clout and was reportedly briefly imprisoned.
In the midst of all this, a young impetuous prince, unknown to the world until a couple of years back, overtook them all. Even the decision by the Allegiance Council during a meeting at Al-Safa Palace in Makkah, overseeing the holy Kaaba, in the early hours Wednesday, was not without dissenting voices. All this may not be good news for the kingdom.
What's next? Is abdication a possibility? It can't be written off completely. There are also rumours about the overall health of King Salman, which may have hastened the process of promoting MBS.
What could now be said with some conviction is that MBS's assumption of power as the King of Saudi Arabia may not be far off.
The rise of the ambitious MBS has been spectacular. In this game of snakes and ladders, he has only seen ladders. But that doesn't mean snakes aren't hiding nearby.