Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com
During the 2015 federal election Justin Trudeau made a record 226 promises. About one-third are either not started, or in progress. A quarter have been achieved and about 15 per cent have been broken, according to TrudeauMeter.
This is not a compelling mid-mandate record for any government. It's made worse by highly qualified achievements and broken promises that stand stark and substantial.
The promise to admit 25,000 Syrian refugees was met, although not by the Dec. 31, 2015, deadline. And this does not compare to the challenge facing the European countries that are being swamped by millions of Syrian and other refugees.
Mr. Trudeau boasts about Canada welcoming 300,000 immigrants last year as an example of his pro-immigration efforts. Yet Canada, through successive governments, has admitted about 1 per cent of its population in immigrants annually for the past two decades.
Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, in her previous role as trade minister, closed the free-trade agreement with Europe (CETA). It will eliminate 98 per cent of the trade tariffs between Canada and the 28 EU countries and make us a preferential gateway to the world for EU investors. But most of the heavy lifting had already been done by Stephen Harper. Now we have to see how Mr. Trudeau fares with the Trans Pacific-Partnership agreement without the support of the United States.
The economy is doing relatively well. It has largely adjusted to the 2014 oil shock, growing faster than other G7 countries and promises modest growth next year. An unemployment rate at 6.3 per cent is the lowest in two years.
How much of this is a result of Mr. Trudeau's pump-priming spending and how much is because of the U.S. economic recovery is difficult to assess. The Liberals seem ready for the challenging NAFTA negotiations, which is the first real test of their ability to negotiate with the administration of Donald Trump.
Has Mr. Trudeau's celebrity style meant greater Canadian influence in world affairs? The Canadian Foreign Policy Journal gives him a B-minus on foreign policy in its 2017 report aptly titled: "Rhetoric vs. Reality."
The government helped the middle class with progressive measures in its first budget: higher taxes for the rich, lower taxes for middle-income earners, a tax-free child benefit and an enhanced Canada Pension Plan (CPP). However, Mr. Trudeau's second budget clawed back most of these gains. The increased CPP payroll tax virtually wiped out the middle-class tax break. A host of children's tax credits were eliminated. Income splitting for couples with children was repealed. The tax-free savings account limit was reduced.
The Liberals have gained support for a Pan-Canadian Framework to address climate change on a national basis. But it simply renews Mr. Harper's commitment to a 30-per-cent reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2030.
The government passed legislation to permit medically assisted dying, but it contains several unfortunate concessions to religious interests. Most notably, the requirement for death to be "reasonably foreseeable" was not intended by the Supreme Court. It's creating confusion and needless suffering.
Mr. Trudeau has removed a series of high-profile, Harper-era irritants. He's restored funding for freshwater research and the long-form census, and introduced non-partisan, merit-based Senate appointments and a gender-equal cabinet.
However, by comparison the Liberal failures are striking and contentious.
The promises to treat Indigenous people "on a nation to nation basis" and give them "veto power" over resource decisions have been abandoned. The inquiry into murdered and missing women is a slow-motion train wreck.
"…2015 will be the last federal election under the first-past-the-post voting system." Apparently not. Mr. Trudeau gave electoral reform to an inexperienced minister, shunned a parliamentary committee's recommendation and ignored calls for a national referendum.
The Liberals promised to run modest deficits of $10-billion in their first two years. Instead there was a $23-billion deficit last fiscal year and a projected shortfall of $28.5-billion this year – without a balanced budget in sight. Finance Minister Bill Morneau's proposed tax reform package falls short. It has no chance of raising the promised $3-billion in annual savings.
Taxpayer's fork out more than $3-billion annually in federal subsidies to oil and gas producers. Mr. Trudeau promised to eliminate these "inefficient" subsidies. Today, he says "not right now."
Mr. Trudeau has nearly 140 promises not yet started or in progress. At this pace the ballot-box issue in the next election may be "Promises made. Promises pending."