Donald Trump is playing us all for fools.
Even as Vice-President Mike Pence stood next to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa on Thursday praising the new North American free-trade agreement and urging its ratification, the White House was preparing an ultimatum for Mexico: Stop the flow of migrants crossing the border, or face new and escalating tariffs beginning June 10.
The President’s threat is jaw-droppingly irrational. On Thursday morning, he sent the text of the new NAFTA treaty to Congress, demanding quick ratification, while dispatching his vice-president to Ottawa to promote the accord.
“#USMCA is a win for North America,” U.S. ambassador Kelly Craft tweeted enthusiastically, referring to the new name for the deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. “Now let’s maintain the momentum and get USMCA across the finish line!”
Hours later, the President threatened to launch a tariff war with Mexico. Why? The only reason can be that he believes the tariffs will win the approval of his core supporters, the MAGA crowd, which is more important than any trade deal.
When the rest of us forget this, when we forget we live in a time when the word of the President of the United States of America is worthless, because nothing matters except the people in the red hats who want the foreigners kept out, we’re the fools.
Nonetheless, both Canada and Mexico are determined to maintain appearances. Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters outside the House of Commons on Friday that Mr. Trump’s threat was a bilateral matter between the U.S. and Mexico that doesn’t affect Canada. “We are ready to proceed with ratification of NAFTA,” she maintained.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is dispatching a delegation led by his foreign minister to Washington to try to talk some sense into the President.
“I want to insist that we are not going to fall to any provocation,” Mr. Lopez Obrador said. “We are going to act with prudence."
The strategy of both countries is clear: Defuse the tariff threat, get the new NAFTA ratified, and hope for the best.
But the best is still awful. The best is waiting every day for a fresh salvo from a Republican President who could turn on Canada tomorrow as easily as he is turning on Mexico now. The best is knowing there is no longer any rule of law in relations with what is still the world’s largest power and largest economy, a country that used to be Canada’s closest ally.
University of Ottawa political scientist Roland Paris, who served previously as foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Trudeau, is more optimistic. Canada, he tweeted Friday, is in a relatively strong position because the border will remain open, either under the old NAFTA or the new one.
But Canada “can’t afford to be complacent,” he added. “Trump’s chaos machine could be turned against us any time.”
Maybe Mr. Trump is bluffing. He has made threats to close or restrict the border with Mexico before, only to back down. Maybe he’ll realize that the new NAFTA treaty he claims to prize is dead unless he relents.
But more often than not, this President acts on his threats. Just ask the Chinese, who are facing their own tariff wall, or people from certain predominantly Muslim counties he has banned from entering the United States. “We have to act as if it’s going to happen,” said Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada. The tariffs could be in place in 10 days.
If Mr. Trump doesn’t back down, there will be chaos. The death of the new NAFTA will be the least of our problems, with the integrated North American economy shattered by a tariff wall, and with the global economy hit by U.S. trade disputes with both China and Mexico, its largest and third-largest trading partners, respectively.
In the long run, Mr. Hyder said, the new untrustworthiness of the U.S. government is a powerful argument for further diversifying Canada’s economy. “But in the short term, we have to get the new NAFTA back on track.”
Meanwhile, in local news, we are a few months from a federal election. Whatever happens, Mr. Trudeau can credibly claim that his government did everything within its power to protect Canada’s trading relationship with the United States.
But if things go south, voters may blame him anyway.
John Ibbitson