The sharp rise in the number of Central American migrants entering the United States is threatening to derail Mexico’s trade and North America’s trade agreement.
The U.S. and Mexico are locked in high-pressure talks over what can be done to reduce the flow immediately. But Mexico has a longer-term idea for dealing with the problem: a US$30-billion “Marshall Plan” to develop Central America. And it wants Canada to be a major participant.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has been touting the idea of a Mexican-led international development plan that would pour projects into the region to try to stem the violence, corruption and poverty, as well as the heavy outflow of migrants from the three countries of Central America’s northern triangle: Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.
Mexico’s Ambassador to Canada, Juan Jose Gomez Camacho, said Mexico is putting together concrete plans and seeking the backing of international players such as the European Union, but wants to see its major regional partners be the key backers. “First row: Canada and the U.S.,” he said.
That’s a call for more targeting of Canadian aid efforts in the region, and more money, although Mr. Gomez Camacho didn’t put a figure on a potential contribution. “For us, Canada is critical to this effort. We have been sharing this broader idea with them and I hope soon we will be able to present very concrete programs to them.”
The spike in Central American migration is at the core of talks between the United States and Mexico this week. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose stiff tariffs on Mexican goods unless the country takes action to stem the flow of migrants passing through Mexico to the U.S. That has created a new trade disturbance in North America – and a risk it could derail the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Mexico doesn’t have a simple solution to cut off migration. It’s not as simple as closing a door. The Mexicans have moved in recent months to detain and deport more of the migrants. But the tense talks puts political pressure on Mr. Lopez Obrador, a left-wing populist. There has traditionally been sympathy for migrants in Mexico. “The Mexican approach to it is first and foremost humanitarian,” Mr. Gomez Camacho said.
The ambassador said Mexico is still “reasonably optimistic” it will successfully address the issue without the U.S. imposing tariffs, and that it will not have an impact on the USMCA. Mexico is working with the U.S. on ways to reduce the flow, he said. But “short-term” measures will not solve the problem.
“The only way you can address these migration flows is by changing the conditions that are forcing people to go. The migration flows are not the result of suddenly people wanting to emigrate or to change countries or to live somewhere else,” he said. “They are being forced by very bad circumstances: violence, unemployment, poverty. Lack of life perspective. So they have felt they have nothing to lose.
“So what we need to do is to relaunch development efforts in these countries to reactivate the economy, to strengthen institutions, to help them to bring down violence, to bring investment and also to develop infrastructure.”
Drawing Canada in as a major player in such an ambitious scheme would certainly require Ottawa to redirect aid dollars toward Central America. The U.S. has appeared to go hot and cold on the idea. So why should Canada jump in on a plan to save the region? “It is Canada’s region, too,” the ambassador argued. And, he said, if it works, and develops the region, it will bring good business for Canadian companies.
The idea has drawn skepticism. There isn’t much doubt about the root causes pushing Central Americans to travel vast distance seeking asylum. But economic problems have combined with governance issues and violence. Building institutions isn’t easy. The three northern triangle countries have high murder rates, crime gangs, and problems with ineffective or corrupt police and courts. Past efforts to boost their economies through aid didn’t have the desired impact.
But Mexico is now pushing the idea that it can be done if it is done on a vast scale – with Canada involved – and that it is key to making the region work. Mr. Lopez Obrador can already point to this week’s events and warn that Central America’s problems can disrupt North American trade.
Campbell Clark