Feeling ignored, Winnipeg? Sorry, but it seems that as far as federal political leaders are concerned, you are no Mississauga. If Calgarians are looking for touring party leaders, they might as well look up, because for the most part, they have been flying over.
Party leaders have to be pretty ruthless about spending their time, and their money, travelling to where they can win seats. There isn’t much time for places where the rewards are few. Even some major cities get short shrift.
But tracking where the leaders go can give you a good sense of how they are doing – and what they are fighting over.
Both of the two biggest parties, the Conservatives and the Liberals, think the question of who wins the most seats will probably be decided in the 905, the ring of suburbs around Toronto. That’s why Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer have spent so much time in Mississauga, Markham and Brampton. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has spent a fair bit of time in Brampton, where he held a seat as an Ontario MPP.
In fact, according to data compiled by The Globe and Mail’s graphics team from the campaigns’ daily itineraries, the four national leaders have so far visited the 905 about as often as they have visited Quebec, and more often than they have stopped in Atlantic Canada or the Prairies.
In a sense, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, and especially the NDP’s Mr. Singh, aren’t really running national campaign tours – they have focused their time in a few places.
The NDP Leader has spent a lot of time in Toronto, and Ms. May has spent a fair bit of time in Atlantic Canada. But both have focused heavily on British Columbia – in the Vancouver area and especially on Vancouver Island, where the NDP and the Greens are fighting a bitter battle for a handful of seats.
Sometimes the locations of visits aren’t about strategy. All leaders stopped twice in the national capital for leaders’ debates.
PARTY LEADERS IN MAJOR
POPULATED AREAS
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
Justin
Trudeau
Andrew
Scheer
Jagmeet
Singh
Elizabeth
May
SOUTHWESTERN B.C.
B.C.
Vancouver
Victoria
TORONTO AREA
Ont.
Toronto
Waterloo
MONTREAL-QUEBEC CITY AREA
Que.
Quebec
Montreal
Note: Locations are approximate
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY
ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PARTY LEADERS IN MAJOR POPULATED AREAS
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
Justin
Trudeau
Andrew
Scheer
Jagmeet
Singh
Elizabeth
May
SOUTHWESTERN B.C.
B.C.
Vancouver
Victoria
TORONTO AREA
Ont.
Toronto
Waterloo
MONTREAL-QUEBEC CITY AREA
Que.
Quebec
Montreal
Note: Locations are approximate
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY
ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PARTY LEADERS IN MAJOR POPULATED AREAS
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
Justin Trudeau
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Elizabeth May
SOUTHWESTERN B.C.
B.C.
Vancouver
Victoria
TORONTO AREA
Ont.
Toronto
Waterloo
MONTREAL-QUEBEC CITY AREA
Que.
Quebec
Montreal
Note: Locations are approximate
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
And sometimes, the target isn’t the riding the leader is standing in. Ms. May didn’t travel to Montreal five times because the Greens will win seats there – she wanted to reach out to Quebec voters and the most efficient way is through the province’s major media centre in Montreal. Mr. Scheer’s visits to Toronto tend to be more about broadcasting into Southern Ontario.
But generally, the leaders go where they think they have a shot at a lot of seats. That means making fewer visits to places where they can expect to win few ridings – especially if takes a lot of travel to get to them.
Mr. Singh hasn’t visited Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland, according to the itinerary breakdown. He made one visit each to Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. His tour agenda is Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.
All leaders focus. Mr. Trudeau made only one visit each to Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland. Mr. Scheer has made one stop each in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland.
WHERE HAVE THE PARTY LEADERS
BEEN THE PAST FOUR WEEKS?
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
JUSTIN TRUDEAU
Dark grey indicates
region not visited
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
35
Que.
21
B.C.
8
N.S.
5
N.B.
5
PEI
2
Alta.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nun.
1
Note: Based on daily itineraries shared by the parties,
and may not include every stop.
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY
ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
WHERE HAVE THE PARTY LEADERS
BEEN THE PAST FOUR WEEKS?
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
JUSTIN TRUDEAU
Dark grey indicates
region not visited
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
35
Que.
21
B.C.
8
N.S.
5
N.B.
5
PEI
2
Alta.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nun.
1
Note: Based on daily itineraries shared by the parties,
and may not include every stop.
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY
ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
WHERE HAVE THE PARTY LEADERS BEEN THE PAST FOUR WEEKS?
Sept. 11 – Oct. 17
JUSTIN TRUDEAU
Dark grey indicates
region not visited
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
35
Que.
21
B.C.
8
N.S.
5
N.B.
5
PEI
2
Alta.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nunavut
1
Note: Based on daily itineraries shared by the parties, and may not include every stop.
GRAPHIC BY MURAT YÜKSELIR, COMPILED BY ANDREW SAIKALI / THE GLOBE AND MAIL
ANDREW SCHEER
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
33
Que.
16
B.C.
9
N.S.
4
PEI
2
N.B.
2
Alta.
2
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nun.
0
ANDREW SCHEER
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
33
Que.
16
B.C.
9
N.S.
4
PEI
2
N.B.
2
Alta.
2
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nun.
0
ANDREW SCHEER
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
33
Que.
16
B.C.
9
N.S.
4
PEI
2
N.B.
2
Alta.
2
Sask.
1
Man.
1
N.L.
1
Nunavut
0
Both Mr. Scheer and Mr. Trudeau each visited Winnipeg once, but travelling throughout Manitoba wasn’t on. Mr. Scheer made a required stop in Calgary, the epicentre of Conservative support, in the first week of the campaign. Ms. May is the only other leader who has.
In Quebec, the leaders focused in different places. Mr. Singh made five visits to the central Montreal riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie, an NDP-held riding where a star Liberal candidate is running – presumably hoping it will be one of the few Quebec seats where New Democrats hold on.
JAGMEET SINGH
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
34
Ont.
B.C.
22
Que.
15
N.S.
1
N.B.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
PEI
0
Alta.
0
N.L.
0
Nun.
0
JAGMEET SINGH
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
34
Ont.
B.C.
22
Que.
15
N.S.
1
N.B.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
PEI
0
Alta.
0
N.L.
0
Nunavut
0
JAGMEET SINGH
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
Ont.
34
B.C.
22
Que.
15
N.S.
1
N.B.
1
Sask.
1
Man.
1
PEI
0
Alta.
0
N.L.
0
Nunavut
0
ELIZABETH MAY
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
B.C.
32
Ont.
7
Que.
6
N.B.
6
N.S.
4
PEI
3
Alta.
1
Man.
1
Sask.
0
N.L.
0
Nunavut
0
ELIZABETH MAY
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
B.C.
32
Ont.
7
Que.
6
N.B.
6
N.S.
4
PEI
3
Alta.
1
Man.
1
Sask.
0
N.L.
0
Nunavut
0
ELIZABETH MAY
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
B.C.
Alta.
N.L.
Sask.
Man.
Que.
PEI
Ont.
N.B.
N.S.
Visits per region
B.C.
32
Ont.
7
Que.
6
N.B.
6
N.S.
4
PEI
3
Alta.
1
Man.
1
Sask.
0
N.L.
0
Nunavut
0
Mr. Scheer has travelled notably to the Eastern Townships, to Quebec City and to Trois-Rivières, where a former mayor is running for the Tories. But his key competitor in many of those places is a leader who can concentrate all his travel in the province, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet. He is Mr. Trudeau’s Quebec adversary, too: On Wednesday and Thursday, Mr. Trudeau travelled to Quebec ridings along the St. Lawrence River and in Montreal suburbs – a mix of Liberal ridings he needs to keep and a few he hopes to pick up.
And with the few days left in the campaign, you can expect to see leaders focus heavily on where the swings seats are concentrated – and especially the 905.
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