Doubts arise over Theresa May’s influence in Boeing-Bombardier dispute

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British Prime Minister Theresa May has vowed to back Bombardier Inc. in its dispute with Boeing Co. to protect jobs in Northern Ireland, but concerns are growing about just how much help she can offer.

The Prime Minister's future was thrown into doubt after her chaotic speech at a Conservative Party conference on Wednesday where she was upstaged by a prankster, struggled with a prolonged coughing fit and suffered the embarrassment of speaking while a backdrop fell apart behind her. On Friday, reports emerged that a group of 30 out of 318 Tory members of Parliament plan to call for her to resign. That's short of the 48 MPs needed to trigger a leadership contest. Ms. May stood firm on Friday, saying she's providing "calm leadership" and that she has the backing of her cabinet.

Her political struggles have raised concerns among union and business groups in Northern Ireland that she can't effectively advocate on behalf of Bombardier, which employs about 4,200 people in the province.

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"I think she's in an incredibly weakened position by the actions of her own party, and what we need now is some change and some new figure at the head of the U.K. government," said Stephen Kelly, chief executive of Manufacturing Northern Ireland, an industry organization. The apparent leadership void has been worsened by the fact that Northern Ireland hasn't had a government since January when a power-sharing deal collapsed between the two main parties, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein. There's no indication the parties will reach an agreement any time soon, meaning the province has no first minister and no cabinet.

Mr. Kelly added that the U.S. Department of Commerce's action on Friday to slap more duties on Bombardier's C Series aircraft as a result of the complaint launched by Boeing showed that the dispute has gone from "ridiculous to absurd" and that Bombardier now faces a total tariff of nearly 300 per cent on the airplanes.

Ms. May has expressed "bitter disappointment" at the tariffs and has promised to work with the Canadian government on behalf of Bombardier. British Defence Minister Michael Fallon has also said the dispute could jeopardize the British government's future relationship with Boeing. However, Mr. Kelly said he doubted that U.S. President Donald Trump takes the British Prime Minister seriously given her political problems. "I doubt that President Trump [is] too worried about Theresa May's threats," he said.

Local union representative Davy Thompson said he too is worried about Ms. May's leadership troubles. "We think Theresa May has been very weak, and she should use the leverage of the contracts they have with Boeing," said Mr. Thompson, a regional co-ordinator in Belfast for Unite, a union that represents most Bombardier workers. "She seems more interested in her own preservation rather than jobs in the U.K." He added that workers at the Belfast plant, which makes wings for the C Series, are growing uneasy about the trade battle because any slowdown in production could have an immediate impact on jobs.

DUP Leader Arlene Foster told The Globe and Mail this week that she was working with Ms. May and Canadian officials to find a settlement. "It's a completely unwarranted complaint, and we are of course very concerned about it from a Northern Ireland perspective," she said in a brief interview during the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.

Ms. Foster could play a key role in the dispute. The DUP won 10 seats in the British election in June, and it has agreed to support Ms. May's Conservatives, which lost ground in the election and did not win enough seats in the House of Commons to form a majority government. Ms. May is now beholden to Ms. Foster and the DUP to prop up the Conservative minority, putting the small Northern Irish party in a strong position.

Asked whether she would press Ms. May to cut Boeing contracts, Ms. Foster replied: "We're not there yet, but what I am saying is, and I think the Defence Minister has said this as well, Michael Fallon, that it's not behaviour that we expect from a strategic partner moving forward, it is not the behaviour we expect."

The Boeing dispute also illustrates the trade realities Britain will have to confront once it's outside the European Union in 2019, said Francis Martin, the head of British Chamber of Commerce, who is from Northern Ireland. Currently, the EU negotiates all free-trade deals for member countries, but Brexit backers have insisted that one of the advantages of leaving the bloc will be that Britain can strike its own deals. That's true, Mr. Martin said, but Bombardier's problems also illustrate the challenges of trading with a big partner such as the U.S. And he said Britain doesn't yet have the experience or skill to negotiate trade deals.

"It's going to make for challenging times," he said.