Carl Mortished
Carl Mortished is a Canadian financial journalist based in London.
When British prime ministers call a snap election, there is usually one objective: to trip up the opposition. In the case of Theresa May, who has just announced her intention to seek a general election in June, it begs the question of who she is hoping to wrongfoot.
This Conservative government faces many hazards, not least Brexit (more on that later), but the Labour Party is not one of them. Opinion polls put Labour between 17 and 20 percentage points behind the Tories, numbers that suggest a potential landslide victory for the Conservatives.
Labour is imploding. The party that won three elections under Tony Blair has been hijacked by a far-left youth movement and is led by the grey-haired rebel, Jeremy Corbyn, a fan of the late Venezuelan leader, Hugo Chavez. With his party engaged in permanent Trotskyite upheaval, Mr. Corbyn shows little interest in becoming prime minister.
Announcing the election, Ms. May spoke of "opponents [who] believe that because the government's majority is so small, our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course." She complains that, at a time when national unity is needed over Brexit, there is political division. "The country is coming together, but Westminster is not," she says.
It's a moot point whether the 48 per cent of Britons who voted "remain" have really changed their minds, but her remarks about Westminster are telling. Ms. May's real opponents are not Labour MPs run ragged by revolution or Scottish nationalists threatening independence. The Prime Minister's opponents sit behind her on the Tory benches in Parliament. She has called a general election to declare war against opponents in her own party.
Only one Tory MP, Kenneth Clarke, a former chancellor of the exchequer and passionate pro-European, voted against the government in the recent bill that triggered the Brexit process. However, the Conservative party remains split down the middle over Brexit, as it was before the referendum. Like all Tory prime ministers, Ms. May is desperate to shut down internal argument. The next two years could be hellish with cabals of Tory MPs seeking to wreck her negotiations with the EU, exploiting her small majority by demanding concessions. With a thumping Tory majority, she reckons she can deliver the European deal she wants and get support in Parliament without dissidents on the left and right thwarting her at the eleventh hour.
The currency markets like her tactical manoeuvre; the pound moved sharply higher against the dollar and the euro. Britain is embarking on its biggest political upheaval since the end of the Second World War – better to have a strong Prime Minister than a weak one, thinks the currency investor. Moreover, there are non-political reasons for Ms. May to exploit the good opinion ratings and go to the country.
Apart from sterling weakness (which has been good for exports), the economy has given Ms. May an easy ride. Until the New Year, consumers were spending merrily. Wage growth and rising employment put more money back into the economy. The IMF has raised its forecast, now betting the British economy will grow by 2 per cent this year.
Ms. May is not a fool; she knows that the fair weather is unlikely to continue. Wage growth in the economy has fallen back below consumer price inflation and most surveys show that businesses are putting investment on hold, pending evidence about how Brexit will affect exports, imports and consumer confidence. Shoppers are keeping Britain afloat, but their mood will change when the credit-card bills drop on the doormat. Britain is in a sort of economic limbo, hoping for salvation but dreading defeat – will Brexit be a heavenly new Elizabethan Age or a back-to-the-1970s purgatory of inflation, stagnation and isolation?
If Ms. May wins, she will get a working majority, one big enough to keep the lunatic fringe at bay, big enough to do extensive deals with Brussels – even on immigration, the red line over which the Brexiters sowed fear and won the referendum.
That will reassure Remainers who hoped for a soft severance from the EU with lots of bridges and tunnels in place, but it reminds us that political discourse in Britain has diminished.
Brexit was all about "taking back control." No one said it was about giving control to the Conservative Party. Whatever the outcomes, this British election and forthcoming French presidential election reveal striking differences. While French politics has splintered into fragments of left, right and every shade in between, Britain is close to becoming a one-party state, in all but name.
Politics in Britain is a bubble within a bubble. It is no longer the politics of a United Kingdom but the politics of England and, in particular, of the Conservative Party in England, where the argument about the country's relationship with Europe has drowned out all other debate. It is Ms. May's task to bring this argument to a conclusion. Yet the British people still don't know where she wants to take the country next.
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Carl Mortished