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The latest U.S, job reading has come in just below the analysts' consensus guesswork, but it was a decidedly modest estimate to begin with.



The ADP employer survey signals that 170,000 people were added to U.S. private-sector payrolls in January, 12,000 fewer than expected by the economy watchers. Like every other gauge of labour market activity, the ADP is closely watched by the markets and subject to monthly swings, distortions and sharp revisions.



The December number, for instance, has been cut to 292,000 from the original estimate of 325,000.



Some analysts feared the revised number would be much worse. And it gives a good idea of what the official U.S. non-farm numbers will look like on Friday.



Ian Shepherdson, the estimable chief U.S. economy watcher for High Frequency Economics, nicely sums up the value of this and other job reports, including the government's own: "ADP is the least-bad advance indicator of payrolls on a month-to-month basis, but no indicator can overcome the handicap of the unreliability of the official numbers."



He and other economists are well aware that the official payroll stats, also compiled by survey, are typically off the actual mark by plus or minus 100,000.



So take the number with a large pinch of salt, but pay attention to the trend.



Mr. Shepherdson's own forecast for this Friday is a gain of 150,000, which is in line with consensus thinking. And he's predicting a decent bounce in private hiring by spring to more than 200,000 a month.



The key, as always, is to keep an eye on the trend, not the actual numbers.

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