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J.P. MOCZULSKI

Unemployment remains a sticky issue.

Canada's jobless rate, at 7.6 per cent, isn't likely to budge much this year, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said this week. Economists aren't expecting any improvement when Statistics Canada releases its jobs data for January on Friday.

The rate did move lower at the end of last year, though the reason stemmed more from a drop in the number of people looking for work than robust job creation. And the rate remains much higher than the 6-per-cent levels in early 2008, with 1.4 million Canadians still out of work.



In fact, jobless rates tend to spike rapidly in recessions and then take years to recuperate. With tepid job growth expected for much of this year, the pattern looks set to continue.

"It will simply take time for the labour market to more broadly heal," Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said in a report this week. It noted that much of the growth has been in part-time positions, and public sector jobs, though the composition is starting to improve.

All told, the economy shed nearly half a million jobs in the recession, or 428,000 positions, revised Statscan data shows. It's still short about 30,000 positions to return to pre-downturn levels and four provinces - Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario and Alberta - haven't yet bounced back.

Economists see January's rate remaining at 7.6 per cent with 15,000 new positions added. In the U.S., they think the economy will generate 140,000 new jobs, though the jobless rate is seen ticking higher to 9.5 per cent from 9.4 per cent.

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