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With Bombardier Inc. apparently just days away from the key milestone of its C Series program – the first flight of its prototype transcontinental airliner – long-time nemesis Embraer has stolen its limelight. At the Paris Air Show this week, the crafty Brazilian aircraft maker rolled out slightly extended versions of its E-Jet regional jets, upgrading the wings, avionics and engines. Although the planes won't enter into service for six years, Embraer signed firm orders for 100 of the jets and boasted of letters of intent and options to purchase hundreds more.
Bombardier, on the other hand, has yet to sign one C Series order at the air show. It may well come back empty-handed. But don't be dismayed on Bombardier's behalf just yet.
The Montreal-based manufacturer has staked much of its reputation and future on the C Series, but business thus far has admittedly been slow – there were just 145 firm orders as of March 31, well shy of the 300 the company promised will be in hand before the plane's planned entry into service next year.
But a slew of new Embraer orders isn't necessarily proof it has outfoxed Bombardier. For one, they are different planes. The biggest of the Embraer jets will be competing with the smallest C Series jets. The Brazilian planes will have fewer seats and cover less range. That could make a difference on some medium-haul routes in Asia and North America, though it is still too early to tell how important range will be against other factors in buying decisions.
What we still don't know are two things that will define the success or failure of the C Series: how robust the market is for jets with between 100 and 150 seats, long a dead-zone in the commercial airline market. We also don't know how much pent-up demand there is for the C Series, with buyers waiting for confirmation that the plane flies as cleanly, quietly and efficiently as the company claims.
In fact, it's wholly reasonable to expect that many potential buyers are waiting in the wings to see the bird in flight before putting down their orders. This is, after all, a "clean sheet" airplane for Bombardier, meaning the designers started from scratch and have a more challenging project to deliver than Embraer, which is simply upgrading a well-established aircraft that has been in production for years.
So once again, investors should continue to focus on the all-important test flight, and ignore Embraer's gloating. For now, that is. If the C Series' debut in the air goes well and the crickets continue to chirp on the buyers' side in the coming months, then it will be time to worry for Bombardier. But we're not at that point yet.
Sean Silcoff is a contributor to ROB Insight, the business commentary service available to Globe Unlimited subscribers. Click here for more of his Insights, and follow him on Twitter at @seansilcoff .
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Sean Silcoff