A report from a prominent technology strategist suggests that a brave new world of interconnectedness is likely to feature far fewer cars than the present.
Mary Meeker, a partner at venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, was formerly the Morgan Stanley technology analyst dubbed "Queen of the Net" by Barron's magazine. For technology investors, few publications are more widely anticipated than Ms. Meeker's state of the Internet year end reports.
The major thematic focus for this year's presentation is a predicted shift from "asset heavy" living to "asset light." Examples include replacing physical music and video collections with online radio and Netflix, book collections with a tablet device, and cash with smartphone applications that allow money transfers everywhere.
The evolution toward asset light appears to leave little need for individuals to own vehicles. Ms. Meeker notes that Zipcar, a company that offers a timeshare service for cars, and Uber, a smartphone-oriented higher-end taxi service, are already reducing the need for cars, particularly in dense urban areas.
But it is the expansion of Web-enabled services that threatens the North American tradition of vehicle ownership. Smart refrigerators that can automatically place food orders for delivery – ending the need for trips to the grocery store – are still too expensive to gain traction. Still, companies such as Ontario-based online grocer Grocery Gateway have proven that profits can be made in the industry, making it more likely that technology will be developed that allows for widespread use of smart appliances.
Younger age groups, content to meet online rather in person, are already losing interest in car ownership. As online services expand, more people will find it economical to pay extra for grocery delivery and dry-cleaning pickup when they can avoid monthly car and auto-insurance payments.
For most Canadians it is not convenient, or, for some, even feasible, to live without a vehicle. A world completely without personal transportation is still unthinkable. Nonetheless, if Mary Meeker is correct about an increasingly connected and service-oriented culture, we have likely seen the peak levels for North American auto demand.
Scott Barlow