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Sylvain Charlebois is dean of the faculty of management and a professor in food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University.

So, are we are going ahead with CETA after all, then? After a few meltdowns and temper tantrums, both sides appear nearly willing to sign the deal. After the number of anti-trade bumps we've seen on the global road in recent months, a Canada-European Union deal would be nothing short of a miracle.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement was initially about growth and prosperity, and how both continents might facilitate more trade across the Atlantic. But in the end, the deal is on the verge of being reached not for what can be gained, but what would have been lost. Europe is saving its global face while Canada has an opportunity to recalibrate its foreign trading ambitions in agri-food.

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While Canada remains an insignificant trading player globally, Europe needs to signal to the rest of the world that it remains open for business, despite its recent union-related woes. Economically, because of Russian embargoes, the EU is desperate to find new markets for its food products. CETA may ease the deflationary pressures Europe has been feeling for some time now.

If Britain's vote to leave the EU becomes reality, the potential gains from CETA for Canada are not as significant, but better access to the European market is good news regardless. Canada's cattle and hog industries are desperate to reach new markets, and CETA will help to do this in the long term. Canada's supply-management sectors have been needing a wake-up call from abroad, and that is exactly what CETA will deliver. With the influx of high-quality, more affordable imports, Canada's dairy industry will now have to redefine itself within a more competitive landscape.

In Canada, domestic dairy processors have been preparing for CETA for years, as massive investments from Saputo, Agropur and others have changed the structure of the industry. Within the farming industry, things will be getting much more challenging. Most of Canada's 11,000 dairy farmers are concerned about the future of the quota system. Some adjustments have been made by provincial boards in recent years, but these have not been nearly sufficient. More trade-focused programs are needed and boards should think of ways to entice dairy farmers to become more competitive. A robust vision for the sector must be realized. Both governments and the dairy sector have been struggling with this problem for decades.

Supply management is about producing what Canada needs as a whole. The quota system allows producers to feel confident and get paid well while high tariffs on imports keep foreign products away from Canadian consumers. The system has been heavily criticized by most of the industrialized world for decades. CETA will allow thousands of kilograms of cheese to enter the Canadian market, exempt from tariffs.

This influx of products represents about 2 per cent of Canada's milk production that will no longer be needed. This figure may not seem like much to the average person, but CETA does in fact create a significant breach in the quota system – a change that in turn will destabilize Canada's entire agricultural system. And, with all provinces having endorsed CETA, more changes are on the way.

CETA will force the issue of supply-management reform, which should be welcome news for dairy farmers most of all. Most have been led to believe that the status quo will serve their interests well moving forward. But given that Canada has lost well over 30,000 dairy farms under supply management, it is time for governments and industry to work on a comprehensive plan to allow the Canadian dairy industry to become more competitive.

A recent benchmark report suggests that Swiss dairy farmers are the least competitive in the world, but Canadians are a close second. If our borders open to allow more foreign dairy products in the future, Canada's dairy sector will completely collapse. Any reform would need to be implemented over the next 15 to 20 years, to give Canadian dairy farmers a fighting chance to adjust.

CETA will be a catalytic force for change and it won't be easy, but our federal government must develop an appetite for it. Ottawa will need to contend with years of fiscal and socio-political baggage. Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay's mandate letter did not mention anything remotely close to reforming Canada's archaic supply-management practices. These are due for a complete overhaul, and leadership coming from Ottawa will be key. For now, the industry has been left to deal with its own problems.

As the deadline to conclude CETA loomed, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau government's inexperience in diplomacy and global negotiations was painfully obvious. It appeared that his government does not have much desire for negotiations in general. That's not very reassuring for those looking to Ottawa for leadership in reforming our supply-management regime. Patience and reserve are virtues, particularly when dealing with the ever-contentious issue of agricultural trade, but with CETA, Ottawa almost fumbled the ball in the end zone in the last minute of play.

The deal appears to have prevailed – we can only hope Mr. Trudeau's government adopts a different, more mature approach domestically for the betterment of Canadian dairy farmers.

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