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Talisman Energy Inc. President and Chief Executive Officer, Hal Kvisle is photographed on Thursday, April 11, 2013.Chris Bolin/The Globe and Mail

Talisman Energy Inc. shares and options are signalling investors once again expect a change at the company, with talk of an activist investor circulating yet again.

The chatter about something big coming at Talisman is intensifying among portfolio managers and trading desks. There's a good deal of speculation over whether a so-far unidentified U.S. activist could get involved.

On a down day for oil stocks, Talisman is soaring. The stock is approaching $13, a gain of $1 in the last two sessions. Volume on Tuesday was three times the average, and it's well past a normal day already on Wednesday.

The options market also shows signs of positioning for a higher Talisman price in the near term. Call options giving owners the right (but not the obligation) to buy Talisman stock for $13 or $14 in coming months are also busy for a second day running.

As Streetwise reported a little over a week ago, there is a growing sense that the current Talisman CEO, Hal Kvisle, is more open to a split-up of the company than he had been in the past. And some analysts have interpreted the appointments of several new directors to the company's board as pointing toward a sale.

There are a few cautionary notes to sound here. The first is that Talisman is not cheap, making an outright sale of the whole company less compelling to a buyer. The second is that a breakup takes time, and requires buyers for disparate assets.

"I don't think Hal needs an activist to tell him what to do, he needs buyers for his assets," said Ron Mayers, a trader at Laurentian Bank Securities who specializes in takeover situations. He said he doesn't believe a transaction is a lock, "but if you look at the price action in the calls just five months from now, someone disagrees."

Finally, this is a pretty familiar plot line with Talisman. People have gotten their hopes up, only to be let down. Almost exactly a year ago, the stock went on a run, jumping close to the $15 mark, sparked by expectations that activist shareholders would force change. Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan and activist firm West Face Capital, which have teamed up before on attempts to shake up companies, both showed up high on the list of shareholders.

The one big change that followed was the departure of then-chief executive John Manzoni, who was replaced by Mr. Kvisle.

Since then, the stock has given up its gains and West Face has sold down its position. It's not believed to be involved in anything this time around.

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