It is a matchup that was predicted by plenty of people at the beginning of the playoffs. But after all that has happened since the regular season concluded, it seemingly defies all reason that for a fourth consecutive year the NBA final will feature the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors.
The set-up is so unusual in American sports that most people most likely do not even know what to call it. “Trilogy” may be a common term, but ask around for what a story with four parts is called and you’ll encounter more than a few furrowed brows.
The answer you are looking for is tetralogy.
As the sporting world begins the fourth chapter of its first tetralogy, the teams have held onto their core casts. LeBron James will lead his underdog Cavaliers against a vaunted Warriors lineup that still includes Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. There are elements of a reboot, with only nine players – combined – having been on the rosters of the teams for all four finals. But fans eager for something new can be forgiven if they believe they are being served a repeat of last year with even less drama as to how it will play out.
On a conference call this week, the veteran broadcast team that will be calling the games for ABC struggled to make a pitch for the series’ competitiveness. Las Vegas has made Golden State the heaviest favorite in a finals series in at least 16 seasons, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.
“This is the biggest difference that I remember between two teams heading into the finals in my time in the NBA,” said Jeff Van Gundy, the long-time coach and broadcaster who has been in the league in various roles since 1989. “I can’t think of a bigger gap from a team perspective.”
His partner, Mark Jackson, has been around the league since 1987 and took his time before weighing in on Cleveland’s chances with “I’m not going to say zero-per-cent chance.”
On paper, it is hard to make a case for Cleveland. Many have suggested that this is the worst supporting cast James has had in any of his nine career appearances in the final: Jeff Green, a player almost synonymous with failing to meet expectations, was the second-best player in Cleveland’s upset of the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Warriors, should Andre Iguodala be healthy, can run out a starting lineup of five players who appear destined for eventual enshrinement in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
But once you accept that Golden State has the advantage in stars, home court and, after last year’s trouncing, psychology, looking for a path to victory for the Cavaliers can provide some fun and maybe some hope for Cleveland fans, who are more than happy to point out that the 73-win Warriors blew a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers in the final in 2016.
The first thing Cleveland will have to do is build up a huge lead in the first half – huge. Since the Warriors have had a tendency to lazily plod their way through the beginning of games, developing no rhythm on either side of the court, committing horrendous turnovers and settling for shots that qualify as bad even for their expert shooters, there is an opportunity to capitalize with aggressive play.
If Cleveland can control the offensive glass – something Tristan Thompson has shown he can easily do against the smaller Warriors players – and the veteran-laden Cavaliers can bully Golden State on the other end of the court with physical play, they could force the Warriors out of their team-first philosophy. The Rockets showed that this strategy could regularly result in a double-digit lead at halftime.
The trick, though, is for the Cavaliers not to let an early lead convince them of anything, and not to fall into the trap of trying to match the Warriors shot for shot once the third quarter rolls around.
Golden State has outscored its opponents by a ridiculous 130 points in the third quarter in these playoffs – an average of 7.6 points a game – and was even better against the Houston Rockets, with a 67-point advantage over seven games. Coach Steve Kerr’s halftime adjustments often resulted in the offence running heavily through Curry, rather than Durant, and the points came in incredible bunches once Curry started having fun.
A common response to this scenario has been to try to match Curry and Durant three-pointer for three-pointer while playing at a breakneck pace, rather than just plugging away with higher-percentage shots and letting a halftime lead do some of the heavy lifting. Cleveland cannot fall into that trap.
The Warriors are far more vulnerable in the fourth quarter, so if the game is close in the final 12 minutes, there is hope for an upset.