By the numbers: Why the Habs are better than the Leafs

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A provocative headline on opening night, I know.

There are a lot of answers as to why the Montreal Canadiens enter this season heavily favoured to be Canada's best NHL team. And why the Toronto Maple Leafs are a ways down that not-so-prestigious list.

We'll start with some of the most basic ones.

The Habs had a 100-point season last year, 16 more than the Leafs. Even more impressively, they had 11 more regulation wins than Toronto, which is typically a better measure of team quality than including the shootout results.

They also went deep in the postseason, which the Leafs haven't experienced in a long, long time.

I'm not going to get into the nitty-gritty of how the two rosters have changed this season. Consider this more of a quick and dirty look back at last season, with a few comments on how it could shift given what we've seen in training camp.

If you're unfamiliar with these numbers, they're rate stats (per 60 minutes of play) and come via David Johnson's wonderful site stats.hockeyanalysis.com. Check it out.

Even strength (5-on-5)

The most important thing there? Both teams get terrific goaltending, even including the Leafs late-season tailspin and Jonathan Bernier's injury.

Having a roughly .930 save percentage at even strength is a great advantage if you can maintain it, and there's no reason to believe these two teams won't have a strength there this season.

Good goaltending means you can sometimes maintain an above average PDO, which is a powerful thing.

Beyond that, what stands out is the fact that (a) the Leafs were a more dangerous team offensively at even strength, primarily because of Phil Kessel, and (b) they were much, much weaker defensively.

Neither of these teams was a possession juggernaut a year ago, but Toronto was a mess in allowing a near-record level of opportunities against, as you've likely heard.

They've made fixing that a huge priority in camp, as highlighted in this piece.

Meanwhile, the Habs were successful last season without being a very dangerous team offensively 5-on-5, and that's been a big focal point in training camp. You have to like some of their additions on that front, too. PA Parenteau will help. Having Nathan Beaulieu with the team full time (instead of Doug Murray etc.) will, too.

They're getting younger and quicker and, in a league where that's become a huge plus, it should help.

So even strength (where more than 80 per cent of games are played) is a huge focus for both teams.

Power play (5-on-4)

Special teams are a little different statistically from even strength in that we look more at how well teams generate or allow opportunities (shots and attempts) than anything coming the other way.

On the power play last year, the Leafs were merely middling at generating both shots and attempts (FF60) but they have such good shooters (Kessel, James van Riemsdyk, Joffrey Lupul etc.) that they were able to covert at above the league average rate.

That can regress, but no one's predicting a big falloff for the Toronto power play.

Montreal had more issues with its PP last year as teams focused on the catalysts at the point, PK Subban and Andrei Markov, which has put more of the focus on using the forwards this season.

The Habs had one advantage over Toronto in that they were much less prone to allowing shorthanded goals, but overall this is an area where Montreal trails Toronto (and the rest of the league) and has to get better.

Penalty kill (4-on-5)

Here, Montreal was elite. An 85-per-cent kill rate, bolstered in part by great goaltending, but backed up by better than average shots and attempts against rates.

You can see how badly this hurt the Leafs. While so much focus has been on Toronto's improving at possession, which is an even strength stat, this is a team that badly needs to be better when down a man as well, something Randy Carlyle talked about on Wednesday before the opener.

He said he was baffled why the Leafs dropped from a good team to a poor one on the PK, but part of that was simply save percentage regression, with his goaltenders unable to continue to bail out a shorthanded unit that hasn't been good enough for quite a while.

Different personnel (more of Stephane Robidas, less of Tyler Bozak and others) and a different structure there should help.

So that, in a nutshell is where these two teams were a year ago. The Leafs are rightly the underdogs in the rivalry this season, but they do have some strengths to build on, in goal and on the PP.

Montreal, however, looks improved on paper after a pretty solid off season by GM Marc Bergevin and should be a more threatening team offensively.

Time to drop the puck.