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Statue of Secretariat

They say there are no sure things in horse racing. Well, they are wrong. There is one certainty and that is that whoever wins this Saturday's Belmont Stakes will not beat Secretariat's stakes record time of two minutes and twenty-four seconds.

In a sport where speed is king, the mile and a half Belmont Stakes is the ultimate test of a young thoroughbred's mettle. The third jewel of American racing's 'Triple Crown,' the Belmont has been run at its current distance since 1926. It's the last and longest jewel of the crown, following the Kentucky Derby at a mile and a quarter and the unusual Preakness distance of a mile and 3/16's.

Thoroughbred racing is a number's game, whether it's time, betting odds or a jockey's weight. But in terms of performance, time is paramount. And in terms of time, 12 is the magic number.

North American racing eschews the metric system and most training and racing events are broken into eighth of a mile increments, or furlongs. The Belmont, racing's most grueling challenge for three year olds, is a mile and a half, or 12 furlongs.

Horse racing, like many other sporting events, is a delicate combination of speed, distance and time. Any racehorse can run the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes. But it's how fast it takes him that is the key.

Every racing thoroughbred, even the lowliest claimer, is capable of running one furlong in 12 seconds. By extension, most horses can easily run two furlongs in 24 seconds or 3/8's of a mile in 36 seconds.

But, like their human counterparts, the further a horse travels, the more difficult it is to maintain a pace of 12 second furlongs. The world's fastest man, Usain Bolt can run a 100 metres in 9.58 seconds but don't expect him to maintain that pace much beyond that distance.

Horses are no different. While most can average a 12 second per furlong pace for 3 or 4 furlongs it gets progressively more difficult the further they go. Most animals begin to slow down when asked to go beyond a half mile at top speed. The next time you peruse the Daily Racing Form, look at a horse's recent workouts and try to find a horse that has worked five furlongs in a minute or less. If you can find one, bet him.

Since 1926, when the Belmont was first run at today's distance of 12 furlongs, there have been 86 different winners of the race. The first, a horse named Crusader won that initial race in a time of 2 minutes, 32 and 2/5 seconds. He held the stakes record until 1930 when Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox lowered the mark to 2:31 and 3/5 seconds.

The next year, Twenty Grand reduced the mark by a full two seconds to 2:29 and 3/5 seconds.

In 1937, Triple Crown champion War Admiral, a son of Man 'O War, won the Belmont with a new stakes record of 2:28 3/5.

In 1943, Triple Crown winner Count Fleet, shaved a fifth of a second off the record and five years later, the great Citation, yet another Triple Crown champ, equaled the mark.

That lasted until 1957 when Gallant Man set a new Belmont record with a time of 2:26 3/5 seconds.

In horse racing, it takes a thoroughbred approximately a fifth of a second to travel one 'length' of a horse. Using this formula, Gallant Man beat Citation's mark by 1 and 4/5 seconds, meaning that he would have beaten the 1948 champ by nine lengths, a huge margin in racing.

Gallant Man's performance remained the benchmark until June 9, 1973 when the Belmont Stakes produced the greatest single achievement in horse racing history.

That was the day when a gorgeous chestnut colt, the legendary Secretariat, won the Belmont and the Triple Crown with a dazzling performance that has not been seen since.

In an extraordinary effort, Secretariat, the 'Big Red' machine, won the in Belmont in a time of 2:24, or an average of 12 seconds per furlong. His average speed that day was 37.5 mph and he won the race by 31 lengths, the equivalent of 83 yards or 76 metres.

His final time was 13 lengths faster than Gallant Man's previous record. It was 22 lengths faster than Citation and 42 lengths faster than Crusader's original record in 1926. In a head to head matchup, Secretariat would have crushed the 2011 winner, Ruler On Ice, by 34 lengths.

To this day, it remains the world record for the distance. No horse, anywhere, has ever run a mile and a half as fast.

As we approach the 144 running of the Belmont, I can't predict if Union Rags or Dullahan or some other three year old will win the race.

But one bet is certain on Belmont day. No horse this year will beat Secretariat's winning time of 2:24 seconds.

That is as sure a thing as there is in horse racing.

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