On the summer solstice, the Women’s World Cup stopped. On the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, there were no games played. But the really long days and hours are just beginning for teams that survived to do battle in the round of 16, and their supporters.
There were no stunning upsets in the group stage. There were surprises, though. An unheralded Italy beat Australia, trounced Jamaica and narrowly lost a torrid match against Brazil. Italy now plays China on Tuesday and is capable of overwhelming a cautious, defensive team with its speed and goal-scoring intent. Cameroon made it to the knockout stage with a last-kick-of-the-game goal against New Zealand. It’s worth remembering that this Cameroon team played one solitary game in the year before this tournament. Whatever alchemy it’s got will be needed against a brutally efficient England on Sunday.
And there’s our mercurial, as yet unknowable, Canada. That loss to the Netherlands means Canada plays Sweden on Monday (3 p.m. ET). It’s a stiffer test than wanted or predicted, and a win over Sweden means Canada is likely to face Germany in the quarter-final stage. If you’re to believe some coverage, that’s terribly ominous.
It isn’t. Canada is capable of beating both Sweden and Germany. This sometimes breathtaking and sometimes brittle team has yet to coalesce into a force that plays must-win games. This new and exciting team with several 18-year-old stars hasn’t had a proper test. It had already qualified for the next round when it met the Dutch team.
Sweden will provide that test. Any opponent in a knockout round would provide it. Sweden is a confident, composed but predictable team. A Canadian team playing its ball-retention tactic can stifle Sweden. Both teams are likely to rely on set pieces for goals if there is no early scoring. Canada’s defending is solid for that. And Christine Sinclair is still a genius at grasping set-piece chances. A brave approach for Canada would be an all-attacking strategy from the start, using Adriana Leon and Nichelle Prince to terrorize a Swedish defence that looked wobbly against fast-moving forwards in the group games. A prediction: Canada 1, Sweden 0, after extra time.
Assuming Canada wins, a battle against Germany isn’t going to be that daunting. Gone are the days when Germany swaggered through tournaments, grinding out narrow victories. It’s now a team that tends to blossom as a tournament unfolds, taking a gradual, businesslike approach. But Germany, like the United States, hasn’t faced really threatening teams so far, and is likely to stroll past Nigeria on Saturday. It is also missing its most creative playmaker, Dzsenifer Marozsan, through injury. She might be back for the quarter-finals but is unlikely to be match-fit. A meeting with Canada would then be ideal timing for Germany to get a dose of reality.
There are a number of very attractive matchups in this round. France against Brazil on Sunday could be torrid for both. France has the weight of host-country expectations and a great reputation. It has the best women’s club players outside of the U.S. In the host country, it’s assumed the U.S. and France are the two-top teams and the only ones that matter. But Brazil can defend a hard-fought victory with as much determination as it uses in aiming to score. There’s a lot of pride at stake.
The Netherlands against Japan on Tuesday will finally settle just how good this Dutch team, as the defending European champion, is. After storming through the Euro tournament two years ago, the team struggled to qualify for this World Cup, suggesting there’s a streak of unreliability there. Japan has yet to reach its potential at this World Cup, but can always surprise. Japan won the 2011 World Cup, reached the final four years ago, won the under-17 World Cup in 2014 and the under-20 Cup in 2018. Its defensive, highly technical game can wear down opponents and defeat anybody. It’s a world power.
The Saturday-to-Tuesday portion of this tournament will sort the truly talented from the lucky and the striving. All that’s predictable is that the U.S. and Germany will move on to the next stage. But all kinds of controversy can erupt. We have already seen farcical situations in which the video-assistant-referee (VAR) technology was used, abused and misused. The level of refereeing calibre remains deeply uneven. France could implode. Somebody might even score against the U.S. Everyone is now under real pressure and there will be tears of joy and disappointment in abundance.