Two years from now, the 2018 World Cup in Russia will be in its final stages. The first of two semi-final games will be played on July 10. Two years is not a long time and the road to the next World Cup is long and dangerous for many national teams. Some come out of the recent Copa America and the concluding Euro 2016 with confidence. Others are in crisis. One is in a mini-crisis. That's Germany.
Germany's exit from Euro 2016 in a 0-2 loss to France in the semi-final was a humiliating defeat for a team and a manager who fully expected to add to its recent World Cup victory by winning the European championship. The double would have cemented the reputation of this generation of Germany players as truly the best in the world, and utterly dominant.
Manager Joachim Low made the airy, dismissive claim that Germany was the better team and lost because of luck and a couple of poor decisions. He was unperturbed. This is undermined by his own demeanour on the sideline. During previous matches he had the hands-in-pocket calmness of a man waiting for a bus. Against France, he was livid with frustration. He also claimed the Euro tournament had been diluted by its expansion to 24 teams. "Sometimes, you get the feeling it's not doing football any good. The quality is suffering," he said.
This is an odd way to explain a semi-final defeat: If the riff-raff hadn't been allowed in, Germany would be champions. A more reasonable explanation is the absence of key players Mats Hummels and Mario Gomez through suspension or injury and key defender Jerome Boateng limping off in the second half.
Low might favour the big picture but, the fact is, Germany failed to turn possession into goals. Striker Thomas Muller failed to have an impact and many times Germany's defence was dithering. At the Euro and in qualifying games, Germany has been exposed as dubious in defence. That needs work. And it needs a striker who can poach goals rather than relying on intricate passing to bamboozle the opposition. Germany needs to toughen up.
Argentina ended the Copa America by losing the final on penalties to Chile, for the second successive Copa, and immediately went into a full-blown crisis. Lionel Messi announced he would no longer play for the national team. Two days later, manager Gerardo Martino resigned. Exactly who will replace him and how that decision will be made, is unclear. During the Copa, Argentine Football Association president Luis Segura was charged with fraud and resigned. Argentina's soccer authority is now without a top administrator to deal with two key issues.
Messi's decision is no Cristiano Ronald-type eruption of petulance. Both his withdrawal and Martino's resignation are connected to the football association mess. Messi and Martino were critical of the arrangements made for the team during the Copa. Travel and training facilities were second-rate and that's a huge issue for players used to the very best from the top clubs that employ them.
Messi has, it seems, made it clear that he will only consider returning to the Argentina team when the turmoil is cleared up and a new manager of his liking is appointed. Besides, he has other problems to deal with, after being found guilty of tax fraud in Spain. Meanwhile, the father of Argentina star Sergio Aguero told the media in Argentina that his son will quit the national team unless Messi returns. Argentina is midway through South America's long qualification process for the World Cup and in danger of imploding.
England is in its every-two-years crisis after leaving a tournament embarrassingly outclassed, this time by Iceland. The usual complaints are being made. But the crisis runs very deep. England was revealed to be brimming with talent, yet unable to play cohesively as a team, especially against opposition with tight defensive tactics. There is a lack of imagination in England's play, tactical nuance appeared foreign to the players and to departed manager Roy Hodgson.
As usual, some are calling for a rethinking of the English system of cultivating young players. That would take a generation.
In the short-term England needs a new manager. The top pick, right now is the Italian Roberto Mancini, who spent several successful seasons in charge at Manchester City. A former top player, he eased into management quickly and is known for his motivational powers. Others being considered are, apparently, Sam Allardyce, Roberto Martinez and Jurgen Klinsmann.
Given the poverty of imagination in England's performance at Euro 2016, it seems unlikely an Englishman will be hired. Klinsmann has spent the past few years in charge of the U.S. team, likes living in America and is unlikely to be tempted by a job that involves attending a lot of dreary EPL games on a wet Wednesday night in the Midlands.
Rethink be damned, England needs a manger to get the team to the World Cup and do better than be embarrassed by a team such as Iceland. That's the immediate crisis.
Team USA is also looking increasingly like an outfit in crisis and that's why Klinsmann has been linked with England. In August, it will be five years since he took over. Now, questions are being asked about his endless thinking and little action.
It became obvious during the Copa that the United States has a defining style of play. Too many players come and go from the team. There is over-reliance on aging players, such as Clint Dempsey and Toronto FC's Michael Bradley. Expectations are now huge. There is an ever-growing national fan base and an ever-growing chorus of grumbles about the coach's failure to deliver results. At times, the U.S. team appears to be a shambles, unsure and nervous. Klinsmann has a contract with the U.S. Soccer Federation that expires in 2018. Before then, however, dissatisfaction with a man who promised excellence and delivered jumbled mediocrity, will probably reach a boiling point.