Toronto FC forward Jozy Altidore and Red Bulls defender Damien Perrinelle vie for the ball in the first game of their MLS Eastern Conference semi-final matchup in New York on Monday.Bill Kostroun/The Canadian Press
At first glance, it looks astounding, as close to a sure thing as you can get in sports.
In 17 Major League Soccer games this season at BMO Field, Toronto FC has exactly one loss. The Reds' home record is 13-1-3 with a nifty .853 winning percentage.
Pair that with the New York Red Bulls' 5-10-2 record on the road this season, a winning percentage of a mere .353, the fact TFC holds a 2-1 advantage going into the second and final leg of its Eastern Conference semi-final and there is no reason to believe the home side can lose on Sunday afternoon at BMO Field.
"We are happy, because to win one in Red Bulls stadium is not easy," said Reds midfielder Victor Vazquez, who sustained a pelvic injury in that game but expects to play Sunday. "Now we are confident. We have to keep doing the same as we did all season. If we score here one or two goals they are going to be done. We have to be confident."
Based on that evidence, why shouldn't Vazquez and his teammates be anything but confident? None of their fellow professional teams in Toronto have come close to losing just one game at home in recent years and only one, the CFL's Toronto Argonauts, went undefeated at home, the last time in 1997 when they also won the Grey Cup.
But a deeper look at the MLS record book shows why even Vazquez, the voluble Spaniard, puts an "if" into discussing what could happen Sunday afternoon in front of what is expected to be the usual sold-out, delirious collection of TFC supporters. Not losing a game at home is almost as common in MLS as feigning injuries.
There are five teams tied at zero for least home losses in one MLS season. The most recent one was the 2016 Colorado Rapids, who went 11-0-6. They were nowhere to be seen when the conference finals rolled around.
So, while it's nice to be finishing the two-game aggregate series at home with two away goals (the first tiebreaker), nothing is being taken for granted, at least for public consumption.
But TFC head coach Greg Vanney will allow his team does play with extra pizzazz in front of those noisy BMO crowds. "The crowds are fantastic," Vanney said. "The guys love to get out and play in front of the home fans. There's just a little bit more they dig into when we're at home and have the great fans behind us. We've been able to utilize that momentum as we played these games."
The most obvious reason for any hesitancy concerning the match with the Red Bulls is the status of Vazquez and defender Drew Moor. Vazquez, the assists machine who is expected to win MLS's newcomer-of-the-year award, scored in the eighth minute of the first game and was lost after a hard collision with a Reds player. Moor turned his ankle late in the first half.
Vazquez said on Thursday: "I think I will be ready. I hope. You never know. Sometimes you can feel good but you get hit in the first minute and then you have to get the substitution."
On Friday, Vanney was non-commital about both players. "They were able to get through the sections of training that we had hoped. Now we'll see how they respond," he said. "With these injuries, it's not just about the day of training but the response afterwards, so we know if they can turn around and go."
The Reds did not miss a beat when it came to losing Moor. He was replaced by Nick Hagglund, who made his first appearance since a medial collateral ligament sprain on Aug. 12. Hagglund played a strong second half with several dynamic defensive plays. In fact, even if Moor is ready to play by game-time Hagglund could still take his spot.
TFC's celebrated depth will be tested if Vazquez is unable to play. His creativity and game savvy are not easily replaced. Jonathan Osorio or Armando Cooper will likely get the start if Vazquez is unable to play.
"His skill set is different, just in terms of he's the assists guy, the guy who unlocks a lot of things," Vanney said of Vazquez. "In that way, I don't think any of our guys are specifically like Victor.
"Other guys that might come into the mix are a little more two-way guys. It's a different perspective on the game and it would be a different sort of role for that player but at the same time it's something they have been capable of doing."
In the first game, the Reds concentrated on a defensive style in order to handle the Red Bulls' high-press game. TFC managed to take away the Red Bulls' space in the first half and not allow them any openings to attack. When the New Yorkers pressed harder in the second half and had the Reds on the run, a brilliant free-kick goal by striker Sebastian Giovinco bailed them out.
Since the Red Bulls enjoyed a remarkable possession percentage of 64.6, it is likely TFC will try for a more attacking style on its home ground. But Vanney hedged when it came to tactics.
"That will be up to how the game plays out a little bit," he said. "We have a lot of variations we're ready for.
"At the end of the day we want the game to have a certain vision. It means we protect our goal, we don't give up much. But we would like to have the ball a little more. We would like to create more chances. We want to be aggressive when we need to be aggressive."
Then again, the coach said, the Reds' approach "doesn't have to change because if we get the same result we got in New York we're through to the next round. So it doesn't have to change but sometimes the game dictates that. That's what our guys have been very good at, recognizing what is available to us in a game and we take it."