A caravan of migrants, travelling from Central America to the United States, walk by the road that links Ciudad Hidalgo with Tapachula, Mexico on Nov. 2, 2018.CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS/Reuters
Why are people leaving their home countries?
Many of those in the migrant caravan are fleeing violence: Honduras and El Salvador are two of the five most violent countries in the world. They, and Guatemala, are highly unequal, with entrenched networks of corrupt politicians and police. Much of Honduras and El Salvador are carved up into territory controlled by gangs that forcibly recruit young people. The migrants are also seeking better economic opportunities:
Many are from impoverished agricultural areas where their ability to survive is being undermined by climate-change-related events including severe drought and flooding. A coffee fungus has ravaged the staple crop in many farming communities in Honduras and Guatemala. Starving farmers head first for the cities in their home countries, but when they face extortion and violence from gangs there, feel they have no choice but to flee north.
How do they organize themselves into a caravan?
People in the original caravan heard about it from friends, on WhatsApp and on Facebook. Others rushed to join it when they saw coverage on local television news. Intense coverage of the first caravan has led to the creation of several others.
Why are migrants travelling in caravans?
The basic principle is safety in numbers: the passage through Mexico is dangerous – thousands of migrants disappear every year, kidnapped or killed by narco-traffickers, human smugglers or corrupt police. A survey by a migrant-support network two years ago found that 100 per cent of Central Americans who travelled alone reported being robbed; more than 80 per cent of female migrants reported sexual assaults. By moving together, the migrants hope to be safe, but to avoid paying the coyotes who demand as much as $10,000 per person for a trip to the U.S. border – a fee that is entirely beyond the means of most of these travellers.
A man carries a girl through the Suchiate River into Mexico from Guatemala.ADREES LATIF/Reuters
In Photos: Thousands of Central American migrants march for the U.S. border
How many caravans are there, and where are they? How many people are on the move?
The first caravan that crossed into Mexico on Oct. 19 swelled to a peak of about 7,000 people but has since shrunk back to about 5,000 as people have worn out, given up or sought asylum in Mexico after weeks of walking. A second, smaller caravan of about 1,800 people crossed into Mexico on Oct. 30, a third of 1,500 people crossed from Guatemala on Nov. 2 and a fourth is amassing in El Salvador.
Are they passing unimpeded into Mexico?
The governments of Honduras and Guatemala both temporarily closed their borders to block citizens from leaving – violating their citizens’ right to freedom of movement – but soon reopened them. Mexican officials tried to close the border with Guatemala in the face of the first caravan, under pressure from the Trump administration, but were overpowered by migrants and then dropped back and allowed migrants to cross, both through the official border post and by river. Federal police amassed on the roads in front of the caravan at various points but have not stopped it for more than a few hours.
Where are migrants sleeping, what are they eating and how are they staying safe?
The caravan has been getting help from the local population in Mexico: The towns they pass through in Chiapas and Oaxaca have themselves sent migrants to the United States for decades and know firsthand the challenges of migration. People donate food, water, clothes, diapers and strollers (Unicef estimates there are as many as 2,500 children in the caravan) and offer rides on trucks. Local municipalities have set up shelters in schools and town squares. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees, the Red Cross and the Catholic church are also assisting with legal advocacy, tents and basic medical services.
Where will the caravan go?
The first caravan’s original plan was to travel straight up Mexico’s Pacific coast, which is the safest route – but also the least developed. Saying they needed access to hospitals and better facilities, the caravan decided two days ago to cross over to the Gulf coast and travel north through the states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas. But these states are the most dangerous, much of their territory under the control of narco-traffickers who also control the coyote routes and are unlikely to let this caravan pass unimpeded if the migrants have not paid.
On Friday night, the Veracruz governor said he would be providing the caravan with buses to take the migrants to Mexico City. He said his goal was to protect the health and safety of people in his state, but likely was also aware of the level of the international scrutiny on the caravan and the potential bad press should migrants be assaulted or worse. With buses, the caravan should reach the capital within a day or two. Maureen Meyer, an expert on Mexico and migration at the Washington Office on Latin America, predicted that as much as half of the caravan would not continue past Mexico City. “There is a lot of mobilization. A lot of organizations in Mexico are setting up workshops, interviews and information so they really understand what the options are,” she said.
Will all of these people try to cross the border?
Those who opt to keep travelling after Mexico City could proceed to Tijuana – the best-known border crossing, but where there is a months-long backlog to make an asylum claim – or to crossings with Texas, where judges tend to be less receptive but the wait is shorter. Some will attempt to make an appointment for a “credible threat” interview – the first step for an asylum claim – while others may attempt to cross the border with a smuggler and then turn themselves in.
The network of migrant shelters in the north of Mexico sent a formal communiqué to the caravan this past week warning that they should not all arrive at the border together, as resources are already severely strained in each city. Cesar Palencia Chavez, who directs migrant services for the city of Tijuana, estimated that only a few hundred would eventually make a border interview request – because they will give up, wear out or learn that their chances of making a successful asylum claim are low, and instead attempt undocumented entry.
UNHCR says that as many as 80 per cent of those who travelled in a caravan last April passed the credible-threat interview – but only about 10 per cent of Central Americans are eventually granted asylum. However Ms. Meyer noted that the U.S. asylum process is so backlogged that migrants who pass the first interview could buy themselves as much as two years living and working in the United States – and many live with the hope that they will be able to go home again in any case. Eunice Rendon, co-ordinator of the Mexico City-based advocacy group Migrant Agenda, said she expects other migrants who were already traversing Mexico or waiting at the border will try to join up to the caravan – seeking safety or the help of volunteer lawyers who are advising on the asylum process; she predicted as many as 3,000 could approach the border together.
Is this a flood of new migrants?
The caravan that is currently in Oaxaca is equal to the number of people apprehended at the U.S. border in a couple of average days – in September 1,400 people were apprehended a day.
migrant caravan treks toward
u.s. southern border
The first of at least four migrant caravans travers
ing from Central America is currently crossing
the isthmus of Mexico from Oaxaca into the
state of Veracruz – heading for the shortest but
most dangerous route to the U.S. border. Some
of the migrants will stop in Mexico City; others
will likely split into smaller groups heading to
border points in California and Texas, where they
will wait and try to make an asylum claim at
backlogged border points or else cross the
border with smugglers and then turn themselves
in to border patrol agents.
Border force overview
U.S.
Border
Patrol*
16,605
National
Guard
2,100
5,200
(up to 15,000)
Troops
*2017 totals. Southwest Border Sectors include Big Bend, Del Rio,
El Centro, El Paso, Laredo, Rio Grande Valley, San Diego, Tucson,
Yuma, and the Special Operations Group
CALIF.
ARIZ.
N.M.
UNITED STATES
El Paso
TEXAS
LA.
Tijuana
Piedras
Negras
Laredo
MEXICO
McAllen
Nov. 2:
Caravan travelling
from Donají to
Acayucan, Mexico
Mazatlan
Pacific Ocean
Guadalajara
Mexico
City
Key
Caravan route
GUATE.
HOND.
Possible routes
stephanie nolen and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE
AND MAIL, SOURCE: Military times; u.s. customs
and border protection; wires
migrant caravan treks toward
u.s. southern border
The first of at least four migrant caravans traversing from
Central America is currently crossing the isthmus of Mexico
from Oaxaca into the state of Veracruz – heading for the
shortest but most dangerous route to the U.S. border.
Some of the migrants will stop in Mexico City; others will
likely split into smaller groups heading to border points in
California and Texas, where they will wait and try to make
an asylum claim at backlogged border points or else cross
the border with smugglers and then turn themselves in to
border patrol agents.
Border force overview
U.S.
Border
Patrol*
16,605
National
Guard
2,100
5,200 (up to 15,000)
Troops
*2017 totals. Southwest Border Sectors include Big Bend, Del Rio,
El Centro, El Paso, Laredo, Rio Grande Valley, San Diego, Tucson, Yuma,
and the Special Operations Group
UNITED STATES
CALIF.
ARIZ.
N.M.
TEXAS
El Paso
LA.
Tijuana
Piedras
Negras
Laredo
McAllen
MEXICO
Nov. 2:
Caravan travelling
from Donají to
Acayucan, Mexico
Mazatlan
Pacific Ocean
Guadalajara
Key
Mexico
City
Caravan route
GUATE.
Possible routes
HOND.
stephanie nolen and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: Military times; u.s. customs and border
protection; wires
migrant caravan treks toward u.s. southern border
The first of at least four migrant caravans traversing from Central America is currently crossing
the isthmus of Mexico from Oaxaca into the state of Veracruz – heading for the shortest but
most dangerous route to the U.S. border. Some of the migrants will stop in Mexico City; others
will likely split into smaller groups heading to border points in California and Texas, where
they will wait and try to make an asylum claim at backlogged border points or else cross the
border with smugglers and then turn themselves in to border patrol agents.
CALIF.
ARIZ.
N.M.
UNITED STATES
San Diego
TEXAS
Dallas
Tucson
El Paso
LA.
Tijuana
Ciudad
Juarez
San
Antonio
New Orleans
Nogales
Houston
Pacific Ocean
Hermosillo
Piedras
Negras
Laredo
Chihuahua
Gulf of Mexico
Key
McAllen
Caravan route
Nov. 2:
Caravan travelling
from Donají to
Acayucan, Mexico
MEXICO
Monterrey
Possible routes
Mazatlan
Border force overview
U.S.
Border
Patrol*
Guadalajara
16,605
Heroica
Veracruz
Oct. 12:
Caravan
Leaves San
Pedro Sula
Mexico City
National
Guard
2,100
GUAT.
5,200 (up to 15,000)
Troops
Oct. 21:
Tapachula,
Mexico
HOND.
*2017 totals. Southwest Border Sectors include Big Bend, Del Rio, El Centro, El Paso,
Laredo, Rio Grande Valley, San Diego, Tucson, Yuma, and the Special Operations Group
stephanie nolen and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: Military times; u.s. customs and border protection; wires
With reporting from Karen Cota.